Transition scenarios are descriptions of future states which combine a future image with an account of the changes that would need to occur to reach that future. These two elements are often created in a two-step process where the future image is created first (envisioning) followed by an exploration of the alternative pathways available to reach the future goal (backcasting). Both these processes can use participatory techniques[1] where participants of varying backgrounds and interests are provided with an open and supportive group environment to discuss different contributing elements and actions.
Transition scenarios are unique in type not only in terms of how they are created (process) but also their content. Their requirements are guided by transition management concepts and consider the "fundamental and irreversible change in the culture, structure and practices of a system" (Sondeijker, 2009:52,[2]). Transition scenarios are emerging as a scenario type which is more applicable to the context of sustainable development based on their abilities to capture the complexities of system structure and innovation.[3][4]
^Raskin, P., T. Banuri, G. Gallopín, P. Gutman, A. Hammond, R. Kates, and R. Swart. (2002). The Great Transition: The Promise and the Lure of the Times Ahead. Boston, MA: Tellus Institute.
^Sondeijker, S. (2009), Imagining Sustainability: methodological building blocks for Transition Scenarios, DRIFT, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands
^Loorbach, D.A. (2007), Transition Management: new mode of governance for sustainable development, DRIFT, Rotterdam
^Rotmans, J. (2005) Societal Innovation: Between Dream and Reality Lies Complexity, Inaugural Speech, Rotterdam, Erasmus Research Institute of Management
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