Medical term for the likely development of a disease
This article is about the medical term. For the engineering discipline, see prognostics.
Asklepios and Hippocrates bookend the façade of the Royal College of Physicians of Edinburgh, statuary by Alexander Handyside Ritchie (1804-1870)
Prognosis (Greek: πρόγνωσις "fore-knowing, foreseeing"; pl.: prognoses) is a medical term for predicting the likelihood or expected development of a disease, including whether the signs and symptoms will improve or worsen (and how quickly) or remain stable over time; expectations of quality of life, such as the ability to carry out daily activities; the potential for complications and associated health issues; and the likelihood of survival (including life expectancy).[1][2] A prognosis is made on the basis of the normal course of the diagnosed disease, the individual's physical and mental condition, the available treatments, and additional factors.[2] A complete prognosis includes the expected duration, function, and description of the course of the disease, such as progressive decline, intermittent crisis, or sudden, unpredictable crisis.[3]
When applied to large statistical populations, prognostic estimates can be very accurate: for example the statement "45% of patients with severe septic shock will die within 28 days" can be made with some confidence, because previous research found that this proportion of patients died. This statistical information does not apply to the prognosis for each individual patient, because patient-specific factors can substantially change the expected course of the disease: additional information is needed to determine whether a patient belongs to the 45% who will die, or to the 55% who survive.[4]
^"What is the prognosis of a genetic condition?". Genetics Home Reference. NIH: U.S. National Library of Medicine. Retrieved 2018-05-20.
^ ab"Prognosis". Nature Publishing Group. Retrieved 20 May 2018.
^Hansebout, R. R.; Cornacchi, S. D.; Haines, T.; Goldsmith, C. H. (2009). "How to use an article about prognosis". Canadian Journal of Surgery. Journal Canadien de Chirurgie. 52 (4): 328–336. PMC 2724829. PMID 19680521.
^Gould, Stephen Jay (2013), "The Median Isn't the Message", AMA Journal of Ethics, 15 (1): 77–81, doi:10.1001/virtualmentor.2013.15.1.mnar1-1301, PMID 23356812
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