Prediction of gradual collapse of industrial civilization
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The Olduvai Theory states that the current industrial civilization would have a maximum duration of one hundred years, counted from 1930. From 2030 onwards, humankind would gradually return to levels of civilization comparable to those previously experienced, culminating in about a thousand years (3000 AD) in a hunting-based culture,[1] such as existed on Earth three million years ago, when the Oldowan industry developed; hence the name of this theory,[2][note 1] put forward by Richard C. Duncan based on his experience in handling energy sources and his love of archaeology.
Originally, the theory was proposed in 1989 under the name "pulse-transient theory".[3] Subsequently, in 1996, its current name was adopted, inspired by the famous archaeological site, but the theory does not rely in any way on data collected at that site.[1] Richard C. Duncan has published several versions since the appearance of his first paper with different parameters and predictions, which has been a source of criticism and controversy.
In 2007, Duncan defined five postulates based on the observation of data on:
The world energy production per capita.
Earth carrying capacity.
The return to the use of coal as a primary source and the peak oil production.
Migratory movements.
The stages of energy utilization in the United States.[2]
In 2009, he again published an update restating the postulate concerning world energy consumption per capita concerning OECD countries, where previously he only compared with the United States, downplaying the role of emerging economies.[4]
Different people, such as Pedro A. Prieto, based on this and other theories of catastrophic collapse or die-off, have formulated probable scenarios with various dates and social events.[5][6] On the other hand, there is a group of people, such as Richard Heinberg or Jared Diamond, who also believe in social collapse, but still visualize the possibility of more benevolent scenarios where degrowth can occur with continued welfare.[7][8][6]
This theory has been criticized for the way in which the problem of migratory movements is posed and for the ideological orientation of the publishing house that published its articles, the Social Contract Press, which is an advocate of anti-immigration measures and birth control.[9][10] There are major criticisms on each of the argumentative bases and different ideologies contrary to such approaches such as the Cornucopians,[11] the advocates of the natural resource-based economy,[12] environmentalist positions and the positions of various nations also fail to establish a consistent basis for such claims.
^ abDuncan (1996)
^ abDuncan (2007)
^Duncan, R. C. (1989). Evolution, technology, and the natural environment: A unified theory of human history. Proceedings of the Annual Meeting, American Society of Engineering Educators: Science, Technology, & Society, 14B1-11 to 14B1-20.
^Duncan (2009)
^Pietro, Pedro A. (8 September 2004). "El libro de la selva". Crisis energética (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 March 2024.
^ abGarcía (2006)
^Diamond (2005)
^Heinberg (2005)
^Pietro, Pedro A. (14 February 2007). "La teoría de Olduvai: El declive final es inminente". Crisis Energética (in Spanish). Retrieved 30 March 2024.
^Southern Poverty Law Center (2001). "Anti-Immigration Groups". Southern Poverty Law Center, Intelligence Report. 101. Archived from the original on 2022-06-18. Retrieved 2022-06-03.
^Chang, Man Yu; Foladori, Guillermo; Pierri, Naína (2005). ¿Sustentabilidad?: Desacuerdos sobre el desarrollo sustentable (in Spanish). Miguel Ángel Porrua. p. 219. ISBN 9707016108. According to the Cornucopians, in order to stop an activity potentially harmful to the physical environment or human health, irrefutable scientific evidence is necessary, which costs a lot of time and money and, for this reason, mere prevention may not justify the very high social cost perpetrated.
^Fresco, Jacque. "Zeitgeits: The Movie - Transcript". Archived from the original on 2010-05-09. Retrieved 2022-06-03. At present, we don't have to burn fossil fuels. We don't have to use anything that would contaminate the environment. There are many sources of energy available.
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The OlduvaiTheory states that the current industrial civilization would have a maximum duration of one hundred years, counted from 1930. From 2030 onwards...
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opens to Russian civilian visitors. Richard C. Duncan introduces the Olduvaitheory, about the collapse of industrial civilization. The global concentration...
Oldowan and Acheulean tools). The term Oldowan is taken from the site of Olduvai Gorge in Tanzania, where the first Oldowan stone tools were discovered...
and foot bones dating to 1.75 million years ago (mya)—were discovered in Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania, in 1960 by Jonathan Leakey. However, the actual first...
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maint: archived copy as title (link) Duncan, Richard C. (2007). The olduvaitheory: terminal decline imminent. http://www.oilcrash.com/articles/olduv_7...
Zinjanthropus skull at Olduvai Gorge in Tanzania, eastern Africa. For much of her career she worked with her husband, Louis Leakey, at Olduvai Gorge, where they...
1970s, hundreds of fossils were found in East Africa in the regions of the Olduvai Gorge and Lake Turkana. These searches were carried out by the Leakey family...
specimen, OH 5, was discovered by palaeoanthropologist Mary Leakey in 1959 at Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania and described by her husband Louis a month later. It was...
Germany from his 1913 Olduvai expedition as stone tools. The same year, Louis Leakey found older, more primitive stone tools in Olduvai Gorge. These were...
and 1946) and several trip to his other research destinations including Olduvai Gorge and Lake Victoria. After Leakey, J.A.J. Gowlett and R.G. Crompton...
analysis of Early Stone Age tools, to be included in her 1971 contribution to Olduvai Gorge, "Excavations in Beds I and II, 1960–1963." However, although the...
assigning sex to the fossil record is a few samples taken in Olduvai Gorge. In 1960, in Olduvai Gorge two skulls identified as OH12 and OH9, were found to...
points considered likely to belong to darts delivered by spear throwers. Olduvai Hominid 1 wore facial piercings. While traditionally described as evidence...
Kohl-Larsen and the Paranthropus boisei in the Olduvai Gorge in 1959 by Mary Leakey. This Rift Valley theory became known as the East Side Story by Yves...
social unrest brewing in China, beginning in 1966, and major discoveries at Olduvai Gorge and East Turkana (Koobi Fora), the paleoanthropological spotlight...
original on 2019-08-10. Retrieved 2019-01-03. "Olduvaï – anticipation & gestion des risques". Le-projet-olduvai.kanak.fr. 2006-05-25. Archived from the original...
descended from Pelorovis oldowayensis, described by Hans Reck in 1928 from Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania, which was itself derived from the older species P. turkanensis...
(November 2001). "The Peak of World Oil Production and the Road to the Olduvai Gorge". Population and Environment. 22 (5): 503–22. doi:10.1023/A:1010793021451...
and wife, British paleoanthropologist Mary Leakey, Louis sent Goodall to Olduvai Gorge in Tanganyika (modern Tanzania), where he laid out his plans. In...
Anomaly 1 (TMA-1). One orbiting Jupiter is named TMA-2, and one in the Olduvai Gorge is found in 2513 and retroactively named TMA-0 because it was first...
be very distinct. In 1959, P. boisei was discovered by Mary Leakey at Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania (specimen OH 5). Her husband Louis named it Zinjanthropus...
circles, Louis Leakey had already reported an apparent pebble industry in Olduvai Gorge, Tanzania, in 1931, the first hard (albeit, controversial) evidence...
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