"Hubbert peak" redirects here. For the episode of The West Wing television series, see The Hubbert Peak.
2004 U.S. government predictions for oil production other than in OPEC and the former Soviet Union
The Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak oil.
Choosing a particular curve determines a point of maximum production based on discovery rates, production rates, and cumulative production. Early in the curve (pre-peak), the production rate increases due to the discovery rate and the addition of infrastructure. Late in the curve (post-peak), production declines because of resource depletion.
The Hubbert peak theory is based on the observation that the amount of oil under the ground in any region is finite; therefore, the rate of discovery, which initially increases quickly, must reach a maximum and then decline. In the US, oil extraction followed the discovery curve after a time lag of 32 to 35 years.[1][2] The theory is named after American geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who created a method of modeling the production curve given an assumed ultimate recovery volume.
^Jean Laherrere, "Forecasting production from discovery", ASPO Lisbon May 19–20, 2005 [1]
^J.R. Wood. "Peak Oil: The Looming Energy Crisis". Michigan Technological University. Retrieved 2013-12-27.
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