Emissions, impacts and responses of Nepal related to climate change
Köppen climate classification map for Nepal for 1980–2016
2071–2100 map under the most intense climate change scenario. Mid-range scenarios are currently considered more likely[1][2][3]
Globally, Nepal is ranked fourth in terms of vulnerability to climate change. Floods spread across the foothills of the Himalayas and bring landslides, leaving tens of thousands of houses and vast areas of farmland and roads destroyed.[4] In the 2020 edition of Germanwatch's Climate Risk Index, it was judged to be the ninth hardest-hit nation by climate calamities during the period 1999 to 2018.[5] Nepal is a least developed country, with 28.6 percent of the population living in multidimensional poverty.[6] Analysis of trends from 1971 to 2014 by the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) shows that the average annual maximum temperature has been increasing by 0.056 °C per year.[7] Precipitation extremes are found to be increasing.[8] A national-level survey on the perception-based survey on climate change reported that locals accurately perceived the shifts in temperature but their perceptions of precipitation change did not converge with the instrumental records.[9] Data reveals that more than 80 percent of property loss due to disasters is attributable to climate hazards, particularly water-related events such as floods, landslides and glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).[10]
The floods of 2018 spread across the foothills of the Himalayas and brought landslides. They have left tens of thousands of houses and vast areas of farmland and roads destroyed.[11] Nepal experienced flash floods and landslides in August, 2018 across the southern border, amounting to US$600 million in damages.[12] There are reports of land which was once used for growing vegetables, and has become barren. Yak herders struggle to find grazing patches for their animals. Scientists have found that rising temperatures could spread malaria and dengue to new areas of the Himalayas, where mosquitoes have started to appear in the highlands.[13]
^Hausfather, Zeke; Peters, Glen (29 January 2020). "Emissions – the 'business as usual' story is misleading". Nature. 577 (7792): 618–20. Bibcode:2020Natur.577..618H. doi:10.1038/d41586-020-00177-3. PMID 31996825.
^Schuur, Edward A.G.; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Commane, Roisin; Ernakovich, Jessica; Euskirchen, Eugenie; Hugelius, Gustaf; Grosse, Guido; Jones, Miriam; Koven, Charlie; Leshyk, Victor; Lawrence, David; Loranty, Michael M.; Mauritz, Marguerite; Olefeldt, David; Natali, Susan; Rodenhizer, Heidi; Salmon, Verity; Schädel, Christina; Strauss, Jens; Treat, Claire; Turetsky, Merritt (2022). "Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 47: 343–371. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847. Medium-range estimates of Arctic carbon emissions could result from moderate climate emission mitigation policies that keep global warming below 3°C (e.g., RCP4.5). This global warming level most closely matches country emissions reduction pledges made for the Paris Climate Agreement...
^Phiddian, Ellen (5 April 2022). "Explainer: IPCC Scenarios". Cosmos. Archived from the original on 20 September 2023. Retrieved 30 September 2023. "The IPCC doesn't make projections about which of these scenarios is more likely, but other researchers and modellers can. The Australian Academy of Science, for instance, released a report last year stating that our current emissions trajectory had us headed for a 3°C warmer world, roughly in line with the middle scenario. Climate Action Tracker predicts 2.5 to 2.9°C of warming based on current policies and action, with pledges and government agreements taking this to 2.1°C.
^"GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2019" (PDF). Germanwatch. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2020-11-29. Retrieved 2020-11-26.
^"GLOBAL CLIMATE RISK INDEX 2020" (PDF). Germanwatch. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-02-24. Retrieved 2021-03-05.
^"Nepal Multidimensional Poverty Index 2018". National Planning Commission. Archived from the original on 2020-12-05. Retrieved 2021-03-05.
^"Observed Climate Trend Analysis of Nepal (1971-2014)" (PDF). Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, 2017. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2020-08-28. Retrieved 2020-11-26.
^Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Shrestha, Asheshwor Man; Aryal, Suman; Shrestha, Sujata; Gautam, Madhu Sudan; Ojha, Hemant (1 June 2019). "Climate change in Nepal: a comprehensive analysis of instrumental data and people's perceptions". Climatic Change. 154 (3): 315–334. Bibcode:2019ClCh..154..315S. doi:10.1007/s10584-019-02418-5. S2CID 159233373.
^"NEPAL'S NATIONAL ADAPTATION PLAN (NAP) PROCESS: REFLECTING ON LESSONS LEARNED AND THE WAY FORWARD" (PDF). Ministry of Forests and Environment. Archived (PDF) from the original on 2021-04-17. Retrieved 2020-12-01.
^Rebecca Ratcliffe; Arun Budhathoki (14 July 2019). "At least 50 people dead and 1 million affected by floods in South Asia". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 20 December 2020. Retrieved 5 March 2021.
^Gill, Peter. "After the Flood: Nepal's Slow Recovery". thediplomat.com. Archived from the original on 2020-12-04. Retrieved 2021-03-05.
^Sharma, Bhadra; Schultz, Kai; Conway, Rebecca (2020-04-05). "As Himalayas Warm, Nepal's Climate Migrants Struggle to Survive". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on 2020-12-06. Retrieved 2020-11-27.
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