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Views on military action against Iran information


Military action against Iran is a controversial topic in Israel and the United States. Proponents of a strike against Iran point to the threat presented by Iran's nuclear program as a casus belli. Many Israelis, and particularly hardline politicians such as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, American neoconservatives, Iranian dissidents (monarchists, Mojahedin-e-Khalq , separatists) support military action to stop the program or go further to overthrow the regime. Opposition to military action is often based in pacifism, but some who are opposed to military action against Iran are opposed for other reasons.

Tel Aviv residents Ronny Edry and his wife, Michal Tamir, with their Israel loves Iran campaign contributed the greatest Israeli NGO effort to persuade the Ayatollah not to enrich uranium to weapons grade.[1][2] Kelsey Davenport, the Director of Nonproliferation Policy at the Washington-based Arms Control Association is the biggest American restraint against Netanyahu and/or NATO's rulers launching and in May 2023, she warned that "a nightmare scenario" is occurring.[3] President Biden asked the Ayatollah to repatriate 3 of his hostages to the U.S. and offered to unfreeze $17 billion in exchange for a verbal promise not to enrich his uranium to 90%.[4] So far, as usual, the Ayatollah has declined to agree.[5]

In 2021, Iran enriched kilograms of U235 to 20% purity[6][7] and then to 60% purity.[8] As of 13 May 2023, Iran had 114.1 kg of 60% HEU and 470.9 kg of 20% HEU and was enriching 20% at a rate of 0.406 kg/day.[9] The Institute for Science wrote that "With a monthly average production rate of 9 kg (U mass) per month, Iran could amass enough 60 percent HEU for three nuclear weapons by mid-June."[10] Some people expect that the uranium enrichment trend will continue all the way to 90%, weapons grade uranium.[11] Iran has warheads with conventional detonators in abundance.[12] The scheduled completion date for Iranian warheads that have functioning nuclear detonators is vague and not publicly known with certainty.[13][14] The world is waiting for the orders from the Ayatollah[15] to enrich to 90% a Significant Quantity (SQ) or more of uranium hexafluoride gas and then to convert the hex(afluoride) to metal at either the Fuel Plate Fabrication Plant (FPFP) or the Uranium Conversion Facility (UCF) in the city of Isfahan/Esfahan. The Prime Minister of Israel has repeatedly warned that he will be forced to destroy Iran's underground nuclear facilities.[16] Israel's high yield nuclear missiles haven't been tested as to their kilotons of yield.[17] In a war situation, it is anticipated that Hizbollah will attempt to launch tens of thousands of rockets from Lebanon against Israel and that Israel will annex Lebanon and make a peace announcement.[18][19][20][21] The main issue is the danger of an eventual, post-peace announcement counterstrike[22][23][24][25] and then a few months afterwards, the POTUS' outlook toward economic suffering in the cities in Iran[26] and Damascus,[27] vis-à-vis the President of Russia's outlook toward Tbilisi.[28]

  1. ^ "Peace Factory, Israel Loves Iran". thepeacefactory.org. sandbox good news. 2012-03-14. Retrieved 2023-06-16.
  2. ^ "Peres Center for Peace & Innovation | President Peres' Speech [before Congress]". peres-center.org. Peres Center for Peace and Innovation. 2014. Retrieved 2023-06-16.
  3. ^ Gambrell, Jon (22 May 2023). "An Iranian nuclear facility is so deep underground that US airstrikes likely couldn't reach it". AP News. Dubai. Retrieved 2023-05-24.
  4. ^ Weinthal, Benjamin (2023-06-08). "Biden Admin to Tehran: Please Take $17 Billion for New Deal". Middle East Forum. Jerusalem. Retrieved 2023-06-16.
  5. ^ Hafezi, Parisa; Irish, John; Mohammed, Arshad (2023-06-16). "US, Iran in talks to cool tensions with a mutual 'understanding'". Reuters. Dubai/Paris. Retrieved 2023-06-16.
  6. ^ Murphy, Francois (2021-01-04). Williams, Alison (ed.). "IAEA confirms Iran starts enriching to higher level, Iran envoy says". reuters.com. Vienna. Retrieved 2023-06-01.
  7. ^ Hafezi, Parisa (2021-01-04). Williams, Alison (ed.). "Iran resumes 20% enrichment at Fordow amid rising tensions with U.S." reuters.com. Dubai. Retrieved 2023-06-01.
  8. ^ Murphy, Francois (2021-04-16). Liffey, Kevin (ed.). "IAEA confirms Iran has started enriching uranium to 60% purity". reuters.com. Vienna. Retrieved 2023-06-01.
  9. ^ Grossi, Rafael M. (2023-05-31). Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015) (Report). IAEA. ¶62. GOV/2023/24. Retrieved 2023-06-16. • 470.9 kg of uranium enriched up to 20% U-235 (+36.2 kg); and
    • 114.1 kg of uranium enriched up to 60% U-235 (+26.6 kg).
  10. ^ Albright, David; Burkhard, Sarah; Faragasso, Spencer; Stricker, Andrea (2023-06-06). Analysis of IAEA Iran Verification and Monitoring Report - May 2023 (Report). Institute for Science and International Security. p. 1. Retrieved 2023-06-16.
  11. ^ Bob, Yonah Jeremy (2022-11-22). "Iran to reach 90% enriched uranium, weighed World Cup terrorism - IDF intel chief". jpost.com. Tel Aviv. Retrieved 2023-06-01. Iran would likely soon carry out at least a symbolic enrichment of uranium to the 90% weaponized level, Haliva said, adding that the world will be tested as never before.
  12. ^ Taleblu, Benham Ben (2023-02-15). Arsenal: Assessing the Islamic Republic of Iran's Ballistic Missile Program (Report). FDD Press. p. 51. Retrieved 2023-06-01. The diversity of warheads reflects the diversity of missions assigned to Tehran's various missiles, as well as Iran's progress in design and engineering.
  13. ^ Orbach, Maya (18 January 2023). "New IDF chief pledges to keep politics out of the armed forces". The Jewish Chronicle. London. Retrieved 21 May 2023.
  14. ^ User Clip: Milley on nuclear Iran (Television Production). DC: C-SPAN. 2023-03-23. Event occurs at 58 seconds. 526765-1. Retrieved 2023-06-01.
  15. ^ "Netanyahu Told UK Israel Will Respond To Iran's 90% Uranium Enrichment". iranintl.com. 10 Downing St. 2023-03-25. Retrieved 2023-06-01.{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: location (link)
  16. ^ Zaredi, Poriya (9 March 2023). "The danger of a nuclear Iran". حرف آخر با پوریا زراعتی - گفت‌وگوی اختصاصی با بنیامین نتانیاهو [The last word with Poriya Zaredi - an exclusive interview with Benjamin Netanyahu] (Television production). Washington DC: Iran International. Event occurs at 14:39. Retrieved 22 May 2023.
  17. ^ Burr, William; Cohen, Avner (2016-12-06). The Vela Incident: South Atlantic Mystery Flash in September 1979 Raised Questions about Nuclear Test (Report). National Security Archive. Briefing Book# 570. Retrieved 2023-06-01. They also noted that it was unusual to stage a test at night and that the measured yield, 1.5 to 2 kilotons, was probably lower than the yield anticipated by the designers.
  18. ^ Inbar, Efraim (2023-04-16). "IDF must prepare for preventative operations in the north - opinion". jpost.com. Jerusalem. Retrieved 2023-06-01. Iran has armed Hezbollah with more than 100,000 missiles that can cover the entire territory of Israel. It is clear to everyone that someone will use the missiles in this extensive arsenal[.]
  19. ^ Naharnet Newsdesk (2022-08-26). "Israeli report: War with Lebanon very likely, UNIFIL at Blue Line 'ineffective'". naharnet.com. Lebanon. Retrieved 2023-06-01.
  20. ^ Karmon, Ely (2021-07-08). "Israel's message to Iran must be 'If Hezbollah hits us, we'll hit you'". blogs.timesofisrael.com. Herzliya. Retrieved 2023-06-01. It is clear that the only way Hezbollah will launch a comprehensive war against Israel is by order of Tehran, in accordance with its strategic needs, especially in the context of its nuclear project. [...] Dr. Ely Karmon is Senior Research Scholar at the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) at The Interdisciplinary Center (IDC), Herzliya
  21. ^ Wilezol, David (2023-05-01). What Fuels The Growing Threat From Hezbollah? (Report). afpc.org. p. 1. Retrieved 2023-06-01. Iran continues to serve as the group's prime funder, providing it with what the State Department estimates to be as much as $700 million annually.
  22. ^ Abu Mohammad al-Julani
  23. ^ VOA News (2023-02-16). "US Backs UN Assessment that New Al-Qaida Leader is in Iran". voanews.com. DC. Retrieved 2023-06-01.
  24. ^ Batrawy, Aya (2020-01-06). "Iranian leader's tears a sign of respect for slain general". apnews.com. Dubai. Retrieved 2023-06-01. In a rare display of emotion from the typically reserved and measured supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei cried openly Monday at the funeral of slain Gen. Qassem Soleimani, his most important military commander with whom he shared a deep bond.
  25. ^ Shipman, Tim (2018-12-23). "Al-Qaeda terror group returns to target airliners and airports". thetimes.co.uk. London Bridge Pl. Retrieved 2023-05-31.
  26. ^ The IMF & the Marshall Plan
  27. ^ Syrian peace process
  28. ^ Geneva International Discussions

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