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Reference class forecasting information


Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. The theories behind reference class forecasting were developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The theoretical work helped Kahneman win the Nobel Prize in Economics.

Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.

Discussion of which reference class to use when forecasting a given situation is known as the reference class problem.

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Reference class forecasting

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Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes...

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Planning fallacy

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in interruptions. Reference class forecasting predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions...

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Forecasting

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Telecommunications forecasting Transport planning and forecasting Weather forecasting, flood forecasting and meteorology In several cases, the forecast is either...

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Demand forecasting

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Group method of data handling (GMDH) Reference class forecasting Quantitative analogies Rule-based forecasting Diffusion of innovation Neural networks...

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Technology forecasting

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change Delphi method Forecasting Futurology Horizon scanning List of emerging technologies Optimism bias Reference class forecasting Strategic foresight...

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Forecast error

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demand forecast accuracy Errors and residuals in statistics Forecasting Forecasting accuracy Mean squared prediction error Optimism bias Reference class forecasting...

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Reference class problem

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In statistics, the reference class problem is the problem of deciding what class to use when calculating the probability applicable to a particular case...

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Trend analysis

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(trends). Cool-hunting Extrapolation Horizon scanning Technology forecasting Weather forecasting Trend analysis tries to predict a trend like a bull market...

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Debiasing

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and representativeness. Training in reference class forecasting may also improve outcomes. Reference class forecasting is a method for systematically debiasing...

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Prognosis

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term) Prediction Reference class forecasting Sign (medicine) Symptom "What is the prognosis of a genetic condition?". Genetics Home Reference. NIH: U.S. National...

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Transportation forecasting

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addition to identifying the forecasting and decision steps as additional steps in the process, it is important to note that forecasting and decision-making permeate...

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Daniel Kahneman

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from the original on March 29, 2024. Retrieved March 12, 2024. "Reference Class Forecasting – Definition and examples". Conceptually. Archived from the original...

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Cost engineering

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Pre-construction services Project management Quantity surveyor Reference class forecasting Total delivery cost Value engineering "Provoc - Glossary of Common...

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Economic forecasting

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Model. See also Land use forecasting, Reference class forecasting, Transportation planning and Calculating Demand Forecast Accuracy. The World Bank provides...

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Technology readiness level

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scanning Reference class forecasting Scenario planning Systems analysis Threatcasting Trend analysis Technology assessment and forecasting Critical design Design...

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Gartner hype cycle

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scanning Reference class forecasting Scenario planning Systems analysis Threatcasting Trend analysis Technology assessment and forecasting Critical design Design...

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Delphi method

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systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts. Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages...

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Prediction

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Expectation Forecasting Futures studies Omen Oracle Predictability Prediction market Predictive modelling Prognosis Prognostics Reference class forecasting Regression...

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Kardashev scale

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civilization. Thus, a Class A civilization would be based on 106 bits of information (less than any recorded human culture), a Class B on 107, a Class C on 108, and...

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Scenario planning

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approach to forecasting, they can be divided into three main groups of activities (which are, generally speaking, common to all long range forecasting processes):...

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Backcasting

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analysis, backcasting can be considered to be the opposite of forecasting; thus: forecasting involves the prediction of the future (unknown) values of the...

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Outline of futures studies

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Orientation Index Futures International Journal of Forecasting Journal of Futures Studies Technological Forecasting and Social Change Abductive reasoning List...

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Consensus forecast

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forecasting Ensemble averaging Ensemble forecasting Quantile Regression Averaging (QRA) Reference class forecasting Timmermann, Allan (2007). "An Evaluation...

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Financial plan

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(business) Financial plan (budget) Optimism bias Personal budget Reference class forecasting Wikimedia Commons has media related to Financial Planning. "Financial...

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