Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. The theories behind reference class forecasting were developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The theoretical work helped Kahneman win the Nobel Prize in Economics.
Reference class forecasting is so named as it predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a reference class of similar actions to that being forecast.
Discussion of which reference class to use when forecasting a given situation is known as the reference class problem.
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Referenceclassforecasting or comparison classforecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes...
in interruptions. Referenceclassforecasting predicts the outcome of a planned action based on actual outcomes in a referenceclass of similar actions...
Telecommunications forecasting Transport planning and forecasting Weather forecasting, flood forecasting and meteorology In several cases, the forecast is either...
Group method of data handling (GMDH) Referenceclassforecasting Quantitative analogies Rule-based forecasting Diffusion of innovation Neural networks...
In statistics, the referenceclass problem is the problem of deciding what class to use when calculating the probability applicable to a particular case...
(trends). Cool-hunting Extrapolation Horizon scanning Technology forecasting Weather forecasting Trend analysis tries to predict a trend like a bull market...
and representativeness. Training in referenceclassforecasting may also improve outcomes. Referenceclassforecasting is a method for systematically debiasing...
term) Prediction Referenceclassforecasting Sign (medicine) Symptom "What is the prognosis of a genetic condition?". Genetics Home Reference. NIH: U.S. National...
addition to identifying the forecasting and decision steps as additional steps in the process, it is important to note that forecasting and decision-making permeate...
from the original on March 29, 2024. Retrieved March 12, 2024. "ReferenceClassForecasting – Definition and examples". Conceptually. Archived from the original...
Model. See also Land use forecasting, Referenceclassforecasting, Transportation planning and Calculating Demand Forecast Accuracy. The World Bank provides...
systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts. Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages...
civilization. Thus, a Class A civilization would be based on 106 bits of information (less than any recorded human culture), a Class B on 107, a Class C on 108, and...
approach to forecasting, they can be divided into three main groups of activities (which are, generally speaking, common to all long range forecasting processes):...
analysis, backcasting can be considered to be the opposite of forecasting; thus: forecasting involves the prediction of the future (unknown) values of the...
Orientation Index Futures International Journal of Forecasting Journal of Futures Studies Technological Forecasting and Social Change Abductive reasoning List...
(business) Financial plan (budget) Optimism bias Personal budget Referenceclassforecasting Wikimedia Commons has media related to Financial Planning. "Financial...