Probabilistic forecasting summarizes what is known about, or opinions about, future events. In contrast to single-valued forecasts (such as forecasting that the maximum temperature at a given site on a given day will be 23 degrees Celsius, or that the result in a given football match will be a no-score draw), probabilistic forecasts assign a probability to each of a number of different outcomes, and the complete set of probabilities represents a probability forecast. Thus, probabilistic forecasting is a type of probabilistic classification.
Weather forecasting represents a service in which probability forecasts are sometimes published for public consumption, although it may also be used by weather forecasters as the basis of a simpler type of forecast. For example, forecasters may combine their own experience together with computer-generated probability forecasts to construct a forecast of the type "we expect heavy rainfall".
Sports betting is another field of application where probabilistic forecasting can play a role. The pre-race odds published for a horse race can be considered to correspond to a summary of bettors' opinions about the likely outcome of a race, although this needs to be tempered with caution as bookmakers' profits needs to be taken into account. In sports betting, probability forecasts may not be published as such, but may underlie bookmakers' activities in setting pay-off rates, etc.
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Probabilisticforecasting summarizes what is known about, or opinions about, future events. In contrast to single-valued forecasts (such as forecasting...
Energy forecasting includes forecasting demand (load) and price of electricity, fossil fuels (natural gas, oil, coal) and renewable energy sources (RES;...
scoring rule provides a summary measure for the evaluation of probabilistic predictions or forecasts. It is applicable to tasks in which predictions assign probabilities...
Granger causality Simulation Prediction market Probabilisticforecasting and Ensemble forecasting The forecast error (also known as a residual) is the difference...
2024. Munkhammar, J.; van der Meer, D.W.; Widén, J. (2019). "Probabilisticforecasting of high-resolution clear-sky index time-series using a Markov-chain...
intractable. For this reason, in the fields of predictive modelling and probabilisticforecasting, it is desirable for a given model to exhibit the Markov property...
Ensemble forecasting is a method used in or within numerical weather prediction. Instead of making a single forecast of the most likely weather, a set...
property can be deduced. In the fields of predictive modelling and probabilisticforecasting, the Markov property is considered desirable since it may enable...
forecasting Energy forecastingForecasting Global Energy Forecasting Competitions Economic forecasting Prediction interval Probabilisticforecasting Quantile...
given forecast period, although tornado, hail and wind details are only available for Days 1 and 2. Day 3, as well as 4–8 use a probabilistic scale,...
Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is a branch of energy forecasting which focuses on using mathematical, statistical and machine learning models to...
Raftery; J. McLean Sloughter; Tilmann Gneiting, ensembleBMA: ProbabilisticForecasting using Ensembles and Bayesian Model Averaging, Wikidata Q98972500...
Retrieved 28 November 2019. Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2017). "ProbabilisticForecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal...
Forecasting of the wind power generation may be considered at different time scales, depending on the intended application: very short-term forecasts...
PMID 38326592. S2CID 267546453. Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2016). "ProbabilisticForecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal...
In the fields of forecasting and prediction, forecasting skill or prediction skill is any measure of the accuracy and/or degree of association of prediction...
Group on Energy Forecasting opened Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2017 (GEFCom2017) termed: Hierarchical Probabilistic Load Forecasting. GEFCom2017...
(2 ed.). Elsevier. p. 64. Jingjing Chen; David Kipping (2017). "ProbabilisticForecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal...
systematic, interactive forecasting method that relies on a panel of experts. Delphi has been widely used for business forecasting and has certain advantages...
maint: unfit URL (link) Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2016). "ProbabilisticForecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal...
leader on physics Inger-lise Frogner, met.no, Project leader on probabilisticforecasting Xiaohua Yang, DMI, Project leader on quality assurance and operational...
Retrieved September 25, 2015. Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2016). "ProbabilisticForecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal...
Society, 21 April 2020 Chen, Jingjing; Kipping, David (2016). "ProbabilisticForecasting of the Masses and Radii of Other Worlds". The Astrophysical Journal...
Generally, the solar forecasting techniques depend on the forecasting horizon Nowcasting (forecasting 3–4 hours ahead), Short-term forecasting (up to seven days...
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