Optimism bias (or the optimistic bias) is a cognitive bias that causes someone to believe that they themselves are less likely to experience a negative event. It is also known as delusional optimism, unrealistic optimism or comparative optimism.
Optimism bias is common and transcends gender, ethnicity, nationality, and age.[1] Optimistic biases are even reported in animals such as rats and birds.[2] However, autistic people are less susceptible to optimistic biases.[3]
Four factors can cause a person to be optimistically biased: their desired end state, their cognitive mechanisms, the information they have about themselves versus others, and overall mood.[4] The optimistic bias is seen in a number of situations. For example: people believing that they are less at risk of being a crime victim,[5] smokers believing that they are less likely to contract lung cancer or disease than other smokers, first-time bungee jumpers believing that they are less at risk of an injury than other jumpers,[6] or traders who think they are less exposed to potential losses in the markets.[7]
Although the optimism bias occurs for both positive events (such as believing oneself to be more financially successful than others) and negative events (such as being less likely to have a drinking problem), there is more research and evidence suggesting that the bias is stronger for negative events (the valence effect).[4][8] Different consequences result from these two types of events: positive events often lead to feelings of well being and self-esteem, while negative events lead to consequences involving more risk, such as engaging in risky behaviors and not taking precautionary measures for safety.[4]
^O’Sullivan, Owen P. (2015). The neural basis of always looking on the bright side. Dialogues in Philosophy, Mental and Neuro Sciences, 8(1):11–15.
^Sharot, Tali (2011-12-06). "The optimism bias". Current Biology. 21 (23): R941–R945. doi:10.1016/j.cub.2011.10.030. ISSN 0960-9822. PMID 22153158.
^Kuzmanovic, B.; Rigoux, L.; Vogeley, K. (2014-01-14). "Brief Report: Reduced Optimism Bias in Self-Referential Belief Updating in High-Functioning Autism". Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders. 49 (7): 2990–2998. doi:10.1007/s10803-016-2940-0. PMID 27757736. S2CID 254571982.
^ abcShepperd, James A.; Patrick Carroll; Jodi Grace; Meredith Terry (2002). "Exploring the Causes of Comparative Optimism" (PDF). Psychologica Belgica. 42 (1–2): 65–98. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.507.9932. doi:10.5334/pb.986. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-11-25.
^Chapin, John; Grace Coleman (2009). "Optimistic Bias: What you Think, What you Know, or Whom you Know?". North American Journal of Psychology. 11 (1): 121–132.
^Weinstein, Neil D.; William M. Klein (1996). "Unrealistic Optimism: Present and Future". Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology. 15 (1): 1–8. doi:10.1521/jscp.1996.15.1.1.
^Elder; Alexander "Trading for a Living; Psychology, Trading Tactics, Money Management" John Wiley & Sons 1993, Intro – sections "Psychology is the Key" & "The Odds are against You", And Part I "Individual Psychology", Section 5 "Fantasy versus Reality" ISBN 0-471-59224-2
^Gouveia, Susana O.; Valerie Clarke (2001). "Optimistic bias for negative and positive events". Health Education. 101 (5): 228–234. doi:10.1108/09654280110402080.
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