Weather prediction using mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans
For broader coverage of this topic, see Atmospheric model.
Weather models use systems of differential equations based on the laws of physics, which are in detail fluid motion, thermodynamics, radiative transfer, and chemistry, and use a coordinate system which divides the planet into a 3D grid. Winds, heat transfer, solar radiation, relative humidity, phase changes of water and surface hydrology are calculated within each grid cell, and the interactions with neighboring cells are used to calculate atmospheric properties in the future.
Numerical weather prediction (NWP) uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though first attempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the 1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number of global and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, using current weather observations relayed from radiosondes, weather satellites and other observing systems as inputs.
Mathematical models based on the same physical principles can be used to generate either short-term weather forecasts or longer-term climate predictions; the latter are widely applied for understanding and projecting climate change. The improvements made to regional models have allowed significant improvements in tropical cyclone track and air quality forecasts; however, atmospheric models perform poorly at handling processes that occur in a relatively constricted area, such as wildfires.
Manipulating the vast datasets and performing the complex calculations necessary to modern numerical weather prediction requires some of the most powerful supercomputers in the world. Even with the increasing power of supercomputers, the forecast skill of numerical weather models extends to only about six days. Factors affecting the accuracy of numerical predictions include the density and quality of observations used as input to the forecasts, along with deficiencies in the numerical models themselves. Post-processing techniques such as model output statistics (MOS) have been developed to improve the handling of errors in numerical predictions.
A more fundamental problem lies in the chaotic nature of the partial differential equations that describe the atmosphere. It is impossible to solve these equations exactly, and small errors grow with time (doubling about every five days). Present understanding is that this chaotic behavior limits accurate forecasts to about 14 days even with accurate input data and a flawless model. In addition, the partial differential equations used in the model need to be supplemented with parameterizations for solar radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, and the effects of terrain. In an effort to quantify the large amount of inherent uncertainty remaining in numerical predictions, ensemble forecasts have been used since the 1990s to help gauge the confidence in the forecast, and to obtain useful results farther into the future than otherwise possible. This approach analyzes multiple forecasts created with an individual forecast model or multiple models.
and 28 Related for: Numerical weather prediction information
Numericalweatherprediction (NWP) uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though...
foundation of modern numericalweatherprediction. In 1922, English scientist Lewis Fry Richardson published "WeatherPrediction By Numerical Process", after...
The history of numericalweatherprediction considers how current weather conditions as input into mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to...
to eight days), and the interpretation of numericalweatherprediction computer models. The WeatherPrediction Center issues storm summaries on storm systems...
capability is a global numericalweather model called the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) and a global ocean prediction model called the Hybrid...
statistics use climate information, output from numericalweatherprediction, and current surface weather observations to develop statistical relationships...
became interested in and started work on numericalweatherprediction, which relied on computers to forecast weather by processing observational data on such...
the foundation of modern numericalweatherprediction. In 1922, Lewis Fry Richardson published "WeatherPrediction By Numerical Process," after finding...
elsewhere. Analyze data and numericalweatherprediction model outputs to prepare daily weather forecasts. Provide weather advice and guidance to private...
This is used as input to computer models of the weather at the world's major numericalweatherprediction centres. MetService operates a data collection...
global numericalweatherprediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service...
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (/ˈwɔːrf/) is a numericalweatherprediction (NWP) system designed to serve both atmospheric research...
American meteorologist who played an important role in developing numericalweatherprediction and increasing understanding of the general circulation of the...
(2011-02-25). "Evaluation of ice and snow content in the global numericalweatherprediction model GME with CloudSat" (PDF). Geoscientific Model Development...
of rain, snow, hail, and other weather phenomena. Radar output is even incorporated into numericalweatherprediction models to improve analyses and forecasts...
consistently high-quality data needed for use in numericalweatherprediction and climatology, however. Road Weather Information System (RWIS) may likewise be...
assimilation initially developed in the field of numericalweatherprediction. Numericalweatherprediction models are equations describing the dynamic behavior...
Environmental Modeling Center develops and improves numericalweather, climate, hydrological and ocean prediction through a broad program in partnership with...
Korea. The service started in 1904 joining the WMO in 1956. NumericalWeatherPrediction is performed using the Unified Model software suite. The current...
infeasible to solve symbolically: Advanced numerical methods are essential in making numericalweatherprediction feasible. Computing the trajectory of a...
accuracy of NWS' Global Forecast System (GFS) numericalweatherprediction model, compared to other global weather models. This was most notable in the GFS...
observations from ships, weather buoys, weather satellites, and numericalweatherprediction have been used to diagnose and help forecast weather over the Earth's...
Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) is a global numericalweatherprediction computer model run by the United States Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology...
HIRLAM, the High Resolution Limited Area Model, is a NumericalWeatherPrediction (NWP) forecast system developed by the international HIRLAM programme...
opportunities in NumericalWeatherPrediction, Diagnostic Studies, Crop Weather Modeling and Computer Science. The National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting...
more predictors. The predictors are typically forecasts from a numericalweatherprediction (NWP) model, climatic data, and, if applicable, recent surface...
operationally worldwide by most meteorological centers, for NumericalWeatherPrediction output (NWP). A newer generation has been introduced, known as...
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