Key component of international climate change agreements
Probability that countries achieve their Paris Agreement Goals according to their nationally determined contributions (NDCs)[1]
The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are commitments that countries make to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions as part of climate change mitigation. The plans that countries make also include policies and measures that they plan to implement as a contribution to achieve the global targets set out in the Paris Agreement. NDCs play a central role in guiding countries toward achieving these temperature targets (keeping global temperature increases well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels).
NDCs embody efforts by each country to reduce national emissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change.[2] The Paris Agreement requires each of the 193 Parties to prepare, communicate and maintain NDCs outlining what they intend to achieve.[2] NDCs must be updated every five years.[2]
Prior to the Paris Agreement in 2015, the NDCs were referred to as intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) and were non-binding. The INDCs were initial, voluntary pledges made by countries, whereas the NDCs are more committed but also not legally binding.
The rates of emissions reductions need to increase by 80% beyond NDCs to likely meet the 2°C upper target range of the Paris Agreement (data as of 2021).[3] The probabilities of major emitters meeting their NDCs without such an increase is very low. Therefore, with current trends the probability of staying below 2 °C of warming is only 5% – and if NDCs were met and continued post-2030 by all signatory systems the probability would be 26%.[3][1]
^ abLiu, Peiran R.; Raftery, Adrian E. (9 February 2021). "Country-based rate of emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 °C target". Communications Earth & Environment. 2 (1): 29. Bibcode:2021ComEE...2...29L. doi:10.1038/s43247-021-00097-8. ISSN 2662-4435. PMC 8064561. PMID 33899003. Available under CC BY 4.0.
^ abcCite error: The named reference :2 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
^ abCite error: The named reference :1 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
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