Not to be confused with highest median voting rules.
For the theorem proving strategyproofness in one dimension, see median mechanism.
This article needs additional citations for verification. Please help improve this article by adding citations to reliable sources. Unsourced material may be challenged and removed. Find sources: "Median voter theorem" – news · newspapers · books · scholar · JSTOR(January 2024) (Learn how and when to remove this message)
In political science and social choice theory, the median voter theorem states that if voters and candidates are distributed along a one-dimensional spectrum and voters have single peaked preferences, any voting method satisfying the Condorcet criterion will elect the candidate preferred by the median voter.
The median voter theorem thus serves two important purposes:
It shows that under a somewhat-realistic model of voter behavior, most voting systems will produce similar results.
It justifies the median voter property, a voting system criterion generalizing the median voter theorem, which says election systems should choose the candidate most well-liked by the median voter, when the conditions of the median voter theorem apply.
Instant-runoff voting and plurality fail this criterion, while approval voting,[1][2] Coombs' method, and all Condorcet methods[3] satisfy it. Score voting satisfies a closely-related average (mean) voter property instead, and satisfies the median voter theorem under strategic and informed voting (where it is equivalent to approval voting). Systems that fail the median voter criterion exhibit a center-squeeze phenomenon, encouraging extremism rather than moderation.
A related assertion was made earlier (in 1929) by Harold Hotelling, who argued that politicians in a representative democracy would converge to the viewpoint of the median voter,[4] basing this on his model of economic competition.[4][5] However, this assertion relies on a deeply simplified voting model, and is only partly applicable to systems satisfying the median voter property. It cannot be applied to systems like instant-runoff voting or plurality at all.[2]
^Cox, Gary W. (1985). "Electoral Equilibrium under Approval Voting". American Journal of Political Science. 29 (1): 112–118. doi:10.2307/2111214. ISSN 0092-5853.
^ abMyerson, Roger B.; Weber, Robert J. (March 1993). "A Theory of Voting Equilibria". American Political Science Review. 87 (1): 102–114. doi:10.2307/2938959. hdl:10419/221141. ISSN 1537-5943.
^P. Dasgupta and E. Maskin, "The fairest vote of all" (2004); "On the Robustness of Majority Rule" (2008).
^ abHolcombe, Randall G. (2006). Public Sector Economics: The Role of Government in the American Economy. p. 155. ISBN 9780131450424.
^Hotelling, Harold (1929). "Stability in Competition". The Economic Journal. 39 (153): 41–57. doi:10.2307/2224214. JSTOR 2224214.
and 22 Related for: Median voter theorem information
choice theory, the medianvotertheorem states that if voters and candidates are distributed along a one-dimensional spectrum and voters have single peaked...
of interests. Gibbard's theorem provides limitations on the ability of any voting rule to elicit honest preferences from voters, showing that no voting...
visualization of voter preferences. These models give rise to an influential theorem—the medianvotertheorem—attributed to Duncan Black. This theorem stipulates...
candidates (as a result of failing the medianvotertheorem). In single-winner plurality voting (first-past-the-post), each voter is allowed to vote for only one...
theory on account of the medianvotertheorem. When it exists, the median in all directions coincides with the geometric median (at least for discrete distributions)...
to the conventional, voter-focused, Voter Realignment theory and Medianvotertheorem, which has been criticized by Ferguson and others. The Investment...
most representative of the electorate. This result is known as the medianvotertheorem. While political candidates differ in ways other than left-right...
Condorcet winner. Condorcet cycles are rare in large elections, and the medianvotertheorem shows cycles are impossible whenever candidates are arrayed on a...
which is to select the median quantity; this results in the medianvotertheorem.[citation needed] It is truthful because the median function satisfies the...
and the medianvotertheorem shows cycles are impossible whenever candidates are arrayed on a left-right spectrum. Arrow's impossibility theorem Discursive...
instability and undermining democracy.[verification needed] By the medianvotertheorem, only a few people hold the balance of power in an two-party system...
preferences of the electorate and the distribution of voters' preferences. Unlike the medianvotertheorem, what drives the equilibrium policy is both the numerosity...
model are the one-dimensional Hotelling's law of 1929 and Black's medianvotertheorem of 1948. Issue voting § Models of issue voting Location model - a...
line represents the estimated location of the median justice—who, as Duncan Black's medianvotertheorem posits, is often the swing vote in closely divided...
also satisfy the medianvotertheorem, which says that the winner of an election will be the candidate preferred by the medianvoter regardless of which...
Duncan Black's medianvotertheorem to calculate the medianvoter position of an N-player bargaining game and solved for the medianvoter position as the...
Company, Inc.. Rowley, Charles K. (1984). "The Relevance of the MedianVoterTheorem". Zeitschrift für die gesamte Staatswissenschaft / Journal of Institutional...
single-peaked preferences and median voting rules to multidimensional settings. The medianvotertheorem says that if voters prefer will necessarily choose...
voting systems which satisfy the Condorcet criterion also satisfy the medianvotertheorem which protects them against strategic manipulation. Other voting...
mean/median, and the accuracy of a method can be identified with the proportion of elections in which the rightful winner is elected. The medianvoter theorem...
maintained by the Archives of the University of Glasgow (GUAS). Medianvotertheorem Public choice theory Eamonn Butler, Public Choice: A Primer, London:...
spectrum. In the general election, under the assumptions of the medianvotertheorem, the candidate must move more towards the center in hopes of capturing...
Global Information