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Imprecise probability information


Imprecise probability generalizes probability theory to allow for partial probability specifications, and is applicable when information is scarce, vague, or conflicting, in which case a unique probability distribution may be hard to identify. Thereby, the theory aims to represent the available knowledge more accurately. Imprecision is useful for dealing with expert elicitation, because:

  • People have a limited ability to determine their own subjective probabilities and might find that they can only provide an interval.
  • As an interval is compatible with a range of opinions, the analysis ought to be more convincing to a range of different people.

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Imprecise probability

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Imprecise probability generalizes probability theory to allow for partial probability specifications, and is applicable when information is scarce, vague...

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Possibility theory

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This allows one to study possibility theory using the tools of imprecise probabilities. We call generalized possibility every function satisfying Axiom...

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Probability bounds analysis

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probabilities without dependence assumptions. Bounding probabilities has continued to the present day (e.g., Walley's theory of imprecise probability...

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Probabilistic logic

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Bayesian networks, Bayesian probability Cox's theorem Dempster–Shafer theory Fréchet inequalities Fuzzy logic Imprecise probability Logic, Deductive logic...

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List of statistics articles

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of the central limit theorem Image denoising Importance sampling Imprecise probability Impulse response Imputation (statistics) Incidence (epidemiology)...

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Probability box

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(2007). Imprecise probability methods for sensitivity analysis in engineering. Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories...

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SIPTA

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Society for Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications (SIPTA) was created in February 2002, with the aim of promoting the research on Imprecise probability...

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A Treatise on Probability

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the subsequent development of 'modern Bayesian probability', and the notion of imprecise probabilities is now well established in statistics, with a wide...

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Choquet integral

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In imprecise probability theory, the Choquet integral is also used to calculate the lower expectation induced by a 2-monotone lower probability, or the...

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Machine learning

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understood connections to other frameworks such as probability, possibility and imprecise probability theories. These theoretical frameworks can be thought...

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Vladimir Vovk

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Society for Imprecise Probability (SIPTA) in 2019, he was invited to deliver a talk on "Game-theoretic foundations for imprecise probabilities" in Belgium...

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Imprecise Dirichlet process

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Moreover, a-posteriori, it assigns zero probability to any set that does not include the observations. The imprecise Dirichlet process has been proposed to...

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Robust Bayesian analysis

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introduction to the imprecise Dirichlet model for multinomial data. Tutorial for the Third International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities and Their Applications...

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George Boole

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general method in probabilities, focusing on determining the consequent probability of events logically connected to given probabilities. His work was expanded...

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Words of estimative probability

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Words of estimative probability (WEP or WEPs) are terms used by intelligence analysts in the production of analytic reports to convey the likelihood of...

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Win probability added

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derive, or imprecise. With the aid of Retrosheet, however, win probability added has become substantially easier to calculate. The win probability for a specific...

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Interval finite element

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a results of such calculations we will get so called imprecise probability. Imprecise probability is understood in a very wide sense. It is used as a generic...

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Upper and lower probabilities

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Upper and lower probabilities are representations of imprecise probability. Whereas probability theory uses a single number, the probability, to describe...

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Isaac Levi

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Sanders Peirce. Levi was known for his work in belief revision and imprecise probability. Levi, Isaac (1973) [1967]. Gambling with truth: an essay on induction...

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Gregory Wheeler

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specializes in formal epistemology. Much of his work has focused on imprecise probability. He is currently Professor of Philosophy and Computer Science at...

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Credal set

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[citation needed] Imprecise probability Dempster–Shafer theory Probability box Robust Bayes analysis Upper and lower probabilities Levi, I. (1980). The...

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Credal network

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based on imprecise probability. Credal networks can be regarded as an extension of Bayesian networks, where credal sets replace probability mass functions...

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Ellsberg paradox

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probabilities. The agent then tries to satisfice the expected utility and maximize the robustness against uncertainty in the imprecise probabilities....

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Catalog of articles in probability theory

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Bayesian probability Bayesian programming Bayesianism Checking if a coin is fair Conjugate prior Factor graph Good–Turing frequency estimation Imprecise probability...

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Leonid Hurwicz

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"Information Processing under Imprecise Risk with the Hurwicz criterion" (PDF). International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications...

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