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In decision theory, the Ellsberg paradox (or Ellsberg's paradox) is a paradox in which people's decisions are inconsistent with subjective expected utility theory. John Maynard Keynes published a version of the paradox in 1921.[1] Daniel Ellsberg popularized the paradox in his 1961 paper, "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms".[2] It is generally taken to be evidence of ambiguity aversion, in which a person tends to prefer choices with quantifiable risks over those with unknown, incalculable risks.
Ellsberg's findings indicate that choices with an underlying level of risk are favored in instances where the likelihood of risk is clear, rather than instances in which the likelihood of risk is unknown. A decision-maker will overwhelmingly favor a choice with a transparent likelihood of risk, even in instances where the unknown alternative will likely produce greater utility. When offered choices with varying risk, people prefer choices with calculable risk, even when those choices have less utility.[3]
^Keynes 1921, pp. 75–76, paragraph 315, footnote 2.
^Ellsberg, Daniel (1961). "Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms" (PDF). Quarterly Journal of Economics. 75 (4): 643–669. doi:10.2307/1884324. JSTOR 1884324.
^"Experimental Discussion of the Ellsberg Paradox". EconPort. Experimental Economics Center, Georgia State University. 2006. Retrieved May 28, 2022.
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