Conflict instigated to distract from domestic strife
A diversionary foreign policy, or a diversionary war, is an international relations term that identifies a war instigated by a country's leader in order to distract its population from their own domestic strife. The concept stems from the Diversionary War Theory, which states that leaders who are threatened by domestic turmoil may initiate an international conflict in order to improve their standing. There are two primary mechanisms behind diversionary war: a manipulation of the rally 'round the flag effect, causing an increase of national fervor from the general public,[1] and "gambling on resurrection", whereby a leader in a perilous domestic situation takes high-risk foreign policy decisions with small chance of success but with a high reward if successful.[2]
Scholars of International Relations have dedicated much research to the practical application of diversionary war. A large percentage investigates Presidents of the United States and their disputed culpability partaking in diversionary foreign policy.[3]
Despite the immense amount of effort and research, scholars have not yet formed a consensus of the accuracy of the theory, and empirical evidence is mixed at best.[4]
^Sobek, David. "Rallying Around the Podesta: Testing Diversionary Theory Across Time." Journal of Peace Research 44.1 (2007): 29–45. 20 Oct. 2008 <http://jpr.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/44/1/29>.
^DeRouen, Karl. "Presidents and the Diversionary Use of Force: A Research Note." International Studies Quarterly 44.2 (2000): 317–328. American University. 20 Oct. 2008. JSTOR 3014000
^Mowle, Thomas S. "Worldviews in Foreign Policy: Realism Liberalism, and External Conflict." Political Psychology 24.3 (2003): 561–592. American University. 20 Oct. 2008. JSTOR 3792326
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