Beneficial economic effect of a young and growing population
Demographic dividend, as defined by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), is "the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and younger, and 65 and older)".[1] In other words, it is "a boost in economic productivity that occurs when there are growing numbers of people in the workforce relative to the number of dependents".[1] UNFPA stated that "a country with both increasing numbers of young people and declining fertility has the potential to reap a demographic dividend."[1]
Demographic dividend occurs when the proportion of working people in the total population is high, because this indicates that more people have the potential to be productive and contribute to growth of the economy.
Due to the dividend between young and old, many argue that there is great potential for economic gains, which has been termed the "demographic gift".[2] In order for economic growth to occur, the younger population must have access to quality education, adequate nutrition and health including access to sexual and reproductive health.
However, this drop in fertility rates is not immediate. The lag in between produces a generational population bulge that surges through society. For a period of time, this "bulge" is a burden on society and increases the dependency ratio. Eventually, this group begins to enter the productive labor force. With fertility rates continuing to fall and older generations having longer life expectancies, the dependency ratio declines dramatically. This demographic shift initiates the demographic dividend. With fewer younger dependents, due to declining fertility and child mortality rates, and fewer older dependents, due to the older generations having shorter life expectancies, and the largest segment of the population of productive working age, the dependency ratio declines dramatically, leading to the demographic dividend. Combined with effective public policies, this time period of the demographic dividend can help facilitate more rapid economic growth and puts less strain on families. This is also a time period when many women enter the labor force for the first time.[3] In many countries, this time period has led to increasingly smaller families, rising income, and rising life expectancy rates.[3] However, dramatic social changes can also occur during this time, such as increasing divorce rates, postponement of marriage, and single-person households.[3]
^ abc"Demographic dividend". www.unfpa.org.
^Bloom, David E. and Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1998, Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia, World Bank Economic Review, 12: 419 - 455.
^ abc"A tale of three islands". The Economist.
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