Global InformationArab Winter information
| Arab Winter | |
|---|---|
| Part of the aftermath of the Arab Spring and the War on Terror | |
 ISIL fighters on a captured T-55 tank in the Syrian civil war | |
| Date | Mid-2012 to roughly 2019 (~7 years) (ongoing in some countries) |
| Location | Middle East, especially Syria, Iraq, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and Libya |
| Caused by |
|
| Goals |
|
| Methods |
|
| Resulted in |
|
The Arab Winter[1][2][3][4][5] (Arabic: الشتاء العربي, romanized: ash-shitāʼ al-ʻarabī) is a term referring to the resurgence of authoritarianism and Islamic extremism[6] in some Arab countries in the 2010s in the aftermath of the Arab Spring protests.[7] The term "Arab Winter" refers to the events across Arab League countries in the Middle East and North Africa, including the Syrian civil war,[8][9] the Iraqi insurgency and the subsequent War in Iraq,[10] the Egyptian Crisis,[11] the First Libyan Civil War and the subsequent Second Libyan Civil War, and the Yemeni civil war.[12] Events referred to as the Arab Winter include those in Egypt that led to the removal of Mohamed Morsi and the seizure of power by General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi in the 2013 Egyptian coup d'état.[13]
The term was first coined by Chinese political scientist Zhang Weiwei during a debate with American political scientist Francis Fukuyama on June 27, 2011. Fukuyama believed the Arab Spring movement would inevitably spread to China, while Zhang predicted the Arab Spring would soon turn into an Arab Winter.[14][15]
According to scholars of the University of Warsaw, the Arab Spring fully devolved into the Arab Winter four years after its onset, in 2014.[16] The Arab Winter is characterized by the emergence of multiple regional wars, mounting regional instability,[17] economic and demographic decline of Arab countries,[18] and ethno-religious sectarian strife.[19] According to a study by the American University of Beirut, by the summer of 2014, the Arab Winter had resulted in nearly a quarter of a million deaths and millions of refugees.[20] Perhaps the most significant event in the Arab Winter was the rise of the extremist group Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, which controlled swathes of land in the region from 2014 to 2019.[21]
In 2023, multiple armed conflicts are still continuing that might be seen as a result of the Arab Spring. The Syrian Civil War has caused massive political instability and economic hardship in Syria, with the Syrian currency plunging to new lows.[22] In Yemen, a civil war and subsequent intervention by Saudi Arabia continues to affect the country.[23]
- ^ Spencer, Richard (December 31, 2012). "Middle East review of 2012: the Arab Winter". The Telegraph. Archived from the original on June 10, 2019. Retrieved July 19, 2014.
- ^ "Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad". The Telegraph. The Jerusalem Post. June 15, 2014. Archived from the original on July 14, 2019. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
- ^ "Expert Warns of America's Coming 'Arab Winter'". CBN. September 8, 2014. Archived from the original on December 9, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
- ^ "The Arab Winter". The New Yorker. December 28, 2011. Archived from the original on September 25, 2018. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
- ^ "Arab Spring or Arab Winter?". The New Yorker. Archived from the original on July 18, 2019. Retrieved October 8, 2014.
- ^ Yun Ru Phua (March 31, 2015). "After Every Winter Comes Spring: Tunisia's Democratic Flowering – Berkeley Political Review". Bpr.berkeley.edu. Archived from the original on July 29, 2017. Retrieved February 11, 2017.
- ^ Ahmed H Adam and Ashley D Robinson. Will the Arab Winter spring again in Sudan?. Al-Jazeera. 11 June 2016. [1] Archived February 8, 2018, at the Wayback Machine "The Arab Spring that swept across the Middle East and succeeded in overthrowing three dictatorships in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya in 2011 was a pivotal point in the history of nations. Despite the subsequent descent into the "Arab Winter", the peaceful protests of young people were heroic..."
- ^ Karber, Phil (June 18, 2012). Fear and Faith in Paradise. Rowman & Littlefield Publishers. ISBN 978-1-4422-1479-8. Archived from the original on September 23, 2023. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
- ^ "Arab Winter". America Staging. December 28, 2012. Archived from the original on October 26, 2014. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
- ^ "Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad". The Jerusalem Post. June 15, 2014. Archived from the original on July 14, 2019. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
- ^ "Egypt and Tunisia's new 'Arab winter'". Euro news. February 8, 2013. Archived from the original on June 29, 2019. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
- ^ "Yemen's Arab winter". Middle East Eye. Archived from the original on September 30, 2018. Retrieved October 23, 2014.
- ^ "Egypt and Tunisia's new 'Arab winter'". Euronews. February 8, 2013. Archived from the original on June 29, 2019.
- ^ Zhang, Weiwei (March 21, 2012). China Wave, The: Rise Of A Civilizational State. World Century Publishing Corporation. p. 158. ISBN 978-1-938134-03-6. Archived from the original on September 23, 2023. Retrieved September 5, 2022.
My observation of the Middle East has led me to conclude that, while many in the West cheer the Arab Spring, one shouldn't be too optimistic. I hope the region will do well, but it will be difficult, and the Arab Spring today may well turn into an Arab Winter in a not-too-distant future with the American interest undermined.
- ^ Fukuyama, Francis; Weiwei, Zhang (2011). "The China Model: A Dialogue between Francis Fukuyama and Zhang Weiwei". New Perspectives Quarterly. 28 (4): 40–67. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5842.2011.01287.x. ISSN 1540-5842. Archived from the original on June 14, 2021. Retrieved June 15, 2021.
- ^ Fiedler, Radoslaw; Osiewicz, Przemyslaw (August 17, 2015). Transformation processes in Egypt after 2011: The causes, their course and international response. Logos Verlag Berlin GmbH. p. 182. ISBN 978-3-8325-4049-4. Archived from the original on September 23, 2023. Retrieved September 5, 2022.
- ^ Wolff, Stefan (April 17, 2014). "From Egypt to Syria, this could be the start of the Arab Winter". The Conversation. Archived from the original on July 18, 2019.
- ^ Cite error: The named reference
rivlinwas invoked but never defined (see the help page). - ^ Malmvig, Lassen (2013), Arab uprisings: regional implication (PDF), IEMED, archived from the original (PDF) on September 24, 2015, retrieved October 18, 2014
- ^ "Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa – between the Arab Winter and the Arab Spring" (PDF), International Affairs, LB, August 28, 2013, archived from the original (PDF) on October 18, 2014, retrieved October 18, 2014
- ^ Wilner, Michael (June 15, 2014). "Analysis: Arab Winter is coming to Baghdad". The Jerusalem Post. Archived from the original on July 14, 2019. Retrieved August 21, 2018.
- ^ Chulov, Martin (June 12, 2020). "US 'Caesar Act' sanctions could devastate Syria's flatlining economy". The Guardian. Archived from the original on August 15, 2022.
- ^ "Yemen's Government demands UN action regards Houthi violation of deal". Arab News. June 12, 2020. Archived from the original on September 23, 2023.