High, medium, and low projections of the future human world population[1]
In world demographics, the world population is the total number of humans currently living. It was estimated by the United Nations to have exceeded eight billion in mid-November 2022. It took around 300,000 years of human prehistory and history for the human population to reach a billion and only 222 years more to reach 8 billion.[2]
The human population has experienced continuous growth following the Great Famine of 1315–1317 and the end of the Black Death in 1350, when it was nearly 370,000,000.[3] The highest global population growth rates, with increases of over 1.8% per year, occurred between 1955 and 1975, peaking at 2.1% between 1965 and 1970.[4] The growth rate declined to 1.1% between 2015 and 2020 and is projected to decline further in the 21st century.[5] The global population is still increasing, but there is significant uncertainty about its long-term trajectory due to changing fertility and mortality rates.[6] The UN Department of Economics and Social Affairs projects between 9 and 10 billion people by 2050 and gives an 80% confidence interval of 10–12 billion by the end of the 21st century,[1] with a growth rate by then of zero. Other demographers predict that the human population will begin to decline in the second half of the 21st century.[7]
The total number of births globally is currently (2015–2020) 140 million/year, which is projected to peak during the period 2040–2045 at 141 million/year and then decline slowly to 126 million/year by 2100.[8] The total number of deaths is currently 57 million/year and is projected to grow steadily to 121 million/year by 2100.[9]
The median age of human beings as of 2020[update] is 31 years.[10]
^ ab"World Population Prospects 2022, Graphs / Profiles". United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2022.
^Kight, Stef W.; Lysik, Tory (14 November 2022). "The human race at 8 billion". Axios. Retrieved 15 November 2022.
^Jean-Noël Biraben (1980), "An Essay Concerning Mankind's Evolution". Population, Selected Papers. Vol. 4. pp. 1–13. Original paper in French:(b) Jean-Noël Biraben (1979)."Essai sur l'évolution du nombre des hommes". Population. Vol. 34 (no. 1). pp. 13–25.
^"World Population Prospects". United Nations. Archived from the original on 19 September 2016. Retrieved 15 September 2016.
^"World Population Prospects, Standard Projections, Archive, 2019 Revision". United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. 2019.
^Ortiz-Ospina, Esteban; Roser, Max (9 May 2013). "World Population Growth". Our World in Data. Archived from the original on 13 October 2016. Retrieved 13 October 2016.
^Cave, Damien; Bubola, Emma; Sang-Hun, Choe (22 May 2021). "Long Slide Looms for World Population, With Sweeping Ramifications". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on 28 December 2021. Retrieved 23 May 2021.
^Cite error: The named reference :2 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
^Cite error: The named reference :3 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
^"World", The World Factbook, Central Intelligence Agency, 19 October 2021, retrieved 1 November 2021
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