Increase in the number of individuals in a population
Absolute increase in global human population per year[1]
Population growth is the increase in the number of people in a population or dispersed group. Actual global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually, or 1.1% per year.[2] The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to 7.9 billion in 2020.[3] The UN projected population to keep growing, and estimates have put the total population at 8.6 billion by mid-2030, 9.8 billion by mid-2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.[4] However, some academics outside the UN have increasingly developed human population models that account for additional downward pressures on population growth; in such a scenario population would peak before 2100.[5] Others have challenged many recent population projections as having underestimated population growth.[6]
The world human population has been growing since the end of the Black Death, around the year 1350.[7] A mix of technological advancement that improved agricultural productivity[8] and sanitation and medical advancement that reduced mortality increased population growth. In some geographies, this has slowed through the process called the demographic transition, where many nations with high standards of living have seen a significant slowing of population growth. This is in direct contrast with less developed contexts, where population growth is still happening.[9] Globally, the rate of population growth has declined from a peak of 2.2% per year in 1963.[10] The global human population is projected to peak during the mid-21st century and decline by 2100.[11]
Population growth alongside increased consumption is a driver of environmental concerns, such as biodiversity loss and climate change,[12][13] due to overexploitation of natural resources for human development.[14] International policy focused on mitigating the impact of human population growth is concentrated in the Sustainable Development Goals which seeks to improve the standard of living globally while reducing the impact of society on the environment while advancing human well-being.[citation needed]
Population[15]
Years passed
Year
Pop. (billions)
–
1800
1
127
1927
2
33
1960
3
14
1974
4
13
1987
5
12
1999
6
12
2011
7
11
2022
8
14
2037*
9
18
2055*
10
33
2088*
11
*World Population Prospects 2017 (United Nations Population Division)
^"Absolute increase in global population per year". Our World in Data. Archived from the original on 28 February 2021. Retrieved 15 February 2020.
^"World Population Prospects 2017 – Data Booklet (ST/ESA/SER.A/401)" (PDF). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. 2017. p. 3. Archived (PDF) from the original on 7 March 2022. Retrieved 13 April 2022.
^"World Population 2017". Retrieved 1 April 2020.
^"World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision: Key Findings and Advance Tables" (PDF). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. p. 2. Archived (PDF) from the original on 26 June 2019. Retrieved 5 January 2019.
^Roser, Max (9 May 2013). "Future Population Growth". Our World in Data.
^O'Sullivan, Jane Nancy (2023). "Demographic Delusions: World Population Growth Is Exceeding Most Projections and Jeopardising Scenarios for Sustainable Futures". World. 4 (3): 545–568. doi:10.3390/world4030034.
^Cite error: The named reference :4 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
^Hopfenberg, Russell. "An expansion of the demographic transition model: the dynamic link between agricultural productivity and population." Biodiversity 15.4 (2014): 246–254.
^Population Reference Bureau. "2013 World Population Factsheet" (PDF). Population Reference Bureau. Archived from the original (PDF) on 18 February 2018. Retrieved 5 December 2014.
^Roser, Max; Ritchie, Hannah; Ortiz-Ospina, Esteban (9 May 2013). "World Population Growth". Our World in Data.
^Cite error: The named reference ihme was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
^Stokstad, Erik (5 May 2019). "Landmark analysis documents the alarming global decline of nature". Science. AAAS. Retrieved 20 October 2022. Driving these threats are the growing human population, which has doubled since 1970 to 7.6 billion, and consumption. (Per capita of use of materials is up 15% over the past 5 decades.)
^Crist, Eileen; Ripple, William J.; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Rees, William E.; Wolf, Christopher (2022). "Scientists' warning on population" (PDF). Science of the Total Environment. 845: 157166. Bibcode:2022ScTEn.845o7166C. doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157166. PMID 35803428. S2CID 250387801.
^United Nations Environment Programme (2021). Making Peace with Nature: A scientific blueprint to tackle the climate, biodiversity and pollution emergencies. Nairobi. https://www.unep.org/resources/making-peace-nature
^"United Nations - World Population Prospects 2017". Archived from the original on 22 March 2018. Retrieved 7 July 2017.
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