The VAN method – named after P. Varotsos, K. Alexopoulos and K. Nomicos, authors of the 1981 papers describing it[1][2] – measures low frequency electric signals, termed "seismic electric signals" (SES), by which Varotsos and several colleagues claimed to have successfully predicted earthquakes in Greece.[3][4] Both the method itself and the manner by which successful predictions were claimed have been severely criticized.[5][6][7] Supporters of VAN have responded to the criticism but the critics have not retracted their views.[8][9]
Since 2001, the VAN group has introduced a concept they call "natural time", applied to the analysis of their precursors. Initially it is applied on SES to distinguish them from noise and relate them to a possible impending earthquake. In case of verification (classification as "SES activity"), natural time analysis is additionally applied to the general subsequent seismicity of the area associated with the SES activity, in order to improve the time parameter of the prediction. The method treats earthquake onset as a critical phenomenon.[10][11][12][13]
After 2006, VAN say that all alarms related to SES activity have been made public by posting at arxiv.org. One such report was posted on Feb. 1, 2008, two weeks before the strongest earthquake in Greece during the period 1983-2011. This earthquake occurred on February 14, 2008, with magnitude (Mw) 6.9. VAN's report was also described in an article in the newspaper Ethnos on Feb. 10, 2008.[14][15][16][17] However, Gerassimos Papadopoulos complained that the VAN reports were confusing and ambiguous, and that "none of the claims for successful VAN predictions is justified",[18] but this complaint was answered on the same issue.[19]
^Varotsos, Alexopoulos & Nomicos 1981a, 1981b
^Varotsos & Alexopoulos 1984 harvnb error: no target: CITEREFVarotsosAlexopoulos1984 (help)
^Varotsos & Kuhlanek 1993 (preface to a special edition about VAN)
^Varotsos, Alexopoulos & Lazaridou 1993
^Mulargia & Gasperini 1992
^Geller 1997, §4.5
^ICEF 2011, p. 335
^Lighthill 1996 (proceedings of a conference that reviewed VAN)
^twenty articles in a special issue of Geophysical Research Letters (table of contents)
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