Global InformationTransient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions information
The transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide (TCRE) is the ratio of the globally averaged surface temperature change per unit carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted.[1][2]
[3]
[4] As emitted CO2 may stay in the atmosphere for thousands of years, this response is the amount that the global temperature changes per the net amount of total carbon dioxide emitted by human activities into the atmosphere.[5][6][2] Scientists agree that global temperature changes linearly regardless of the path taken to reach peak cumulative CO2 emissions.[7][8][2] This means that for specific amount of cumulative CO2 emissions, a known global temperature change (within a range of uncertainty) can be expected, which indicates that holding global temperature change to below specific thresholds is a problem of limiting cumulative CO2 emissions, leading to the idea of a carbon budget.[2][9][3]
- ^ Leduc, M.; Matthews, H.D.; de Elia, R. (January 4, 2016). "Regional estimates of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions". Nature Climate Change. 6 (5): 474–478. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2913.
- ^ a b c d Matthews, H.D.; Zickfeld, K.; Knutti, R.; Allen, M.R. (January 12, 2018). "Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets". Environmental Research Letters. 13: 010201. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c9.
- ^ a b Canadell, J. G., Monteiro, P. M. S., Costa, M. H., Cotrim da Cunha, L., Cox, P. M., Eliseev, A. V., Henson, S., Ishii, M., Jaccard, S., Koven, C., Lohila, A., Patra, P. K., Piao, S., Rogelj, J., Syampungani, S., Zaehle, S., Zickfeld, K. (2021). "Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change". In Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., Zhou, B. (eds.). Global Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks (PDF). Cambridge University Press.
- ^ Matthews, J. B. R., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Möller, V., Méndez, C., van Diemen, R., Reisinger, A., Semenov, S. (2021). "Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change". In Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Connors, S. L., Péan, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekçi, O., Yu, R., Zhou, B. (eds.). Annex VII: Glossary (PDF). Cambridge University Press.
- ^ Allen, M.R.; Frame, D.J.; Huntingford, C.; Lowe, J.A.; Meinshausen, M.; Meinshausen, N. (April 30, 2009). "Warming caused by cumulative emissions towards the trillionth tonne". Nature. 458 (7242): 1163–1166. doi:10.1038/nature08019. PMID 19407800. S2CID 7459207.
- ^ Matthews, H.D.; Gillett, N.P.; Stott, P.A; Zickfeld, K (June 11, 2009). "The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions". Nature. 459 (7248): 829–832. doi:10.1038/nature08047. PMID 19516338. S2CID 4423773.
- ^ Zickfeld, K.; MacDougall, A.H.; Matthews, H.D. (May 12, 2016). "On the proportionality between global temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions during periods of net negative CO2 emissions". Environmental Research Letters. 11 (5): 055006. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055006. hdl:20.500.11850/117254.
- ^ Tokarska, K.B.; Gillett, N.P.; Weaver, A.J.; Arora, V.K.; Eby, M. (May 23, 2016). "The climate response to five trillion tonnes of carbon". Nature Climate Change. 6 (9): 851–855. doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3036.
- ^ Collins, M.; Knutti, R.; Arblaster, J.; Dufresne, J.-L.; Fichefet, T.; Friedlingstein, P.; Gao, X.; Gutowski, W.J.; Johns, T.; Krinner, G.; Shongwe, M.; Tebaldi, C.; Weaver, A.J.; Wehner, M. (2013). Stocker, T.F.; Qin, D.; Plattner, G.-K.; Tignor, M.; Allen, S.K.; Boschung, J.; Nauels, A.; Xia, Y.; Bex, V. (eds.). "Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility". In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.