Limit on carbon dioxide emission for a given climate impact
For the assessment of the biogeochemical cycle by which carbon is exchanged at the global level between sources and sinks in the biosphere, pedosphere, geosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere, also referred to as the Global Carbon Budget, see Carbon cycle.
A carbon budget is a concept used in climate policy to help set emissions reduction targets in a fair and effective way. It examines the "maximum amount of cumulative net global anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that would result in limiting global warming to a given level".[2]: 2220 It can be expressed relative to the pre-industrial period (the year 1750). In this case, it is the total carbon budget. Or it can be expressed from a recent specified date onwards. In that case it is the remaining carbon budget.[2]: 2220
A carbon budget that will keep global warming below a specified temperature limit is also called an emissions budget or quota, or allowable emissions.[3][4][5] Apart from limiting the global temperature increase, another objective of such an emissions budget can be to limit sea level rise.[6]
Scientists combine estimates of various contributing factors to calculate the carbon budget. The estimates take into account the available scientific evidence as well as value judgments or choices.[7][8][9][10][11]
Global carbon budgets can be further sub-divided into national emissions budgets. This can help countries set their own emission goals. Emissions budgets indicate a finite amount of carbon dioxide that can be emitted over time, before resulting in dangerous levels of global warming. The change in global temperature is independent of the source of these emissions, and is largely independent of the timing of these emissions.[12][13]
To translate global carbon budgets to the country level, a set of value judgments have to be made on how to distribute the remaining carbon budget over all the different countries. This should take into account aspects of equity and fairness between countries[10][14] as well as other methodological choices.[14] There are many differences between nations, such as population size, level of industrialisation, historic emissions, and mitigation capabilities. For this reason, scientists are attempting to allocate global carbon budgets among countries using various principles of equity.[15]
^Christiana Figueres; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber; Gail Whiteman; Johan Rockström (2017-06-29). "Three years to safeguard our climate". Nature. Vol. 546, no. 7660. pp. 593–595. doi:10.1038/546593a. ISSN 0028-0836. Retrieved 2022-05-01.
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^Meinshausen, Malte; Meinshausen, Nicolai; Hare, William; Raper, Sarah C. B.; Frieler, Katja; Knutti, Reto; Frame, David J.; Allen, Myles R. (April 2009). "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C". Nature. 458 (7242): 1158–1162. Bibcode:2009Natur.458.1158M. CiteSeerX 10.1.1.337.3632. doi:10.1038/nature08017. PMID 19407799. S2CID 4342402.
^Matthews, H Damon; Zickfeld, Kirsten; Knutti, Reto; Allen, Myles R (1 January 2018). "Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets". Environmental Research Letters. 13 (1): 010201. Bibcode:2018ERL....13a0201D. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c9.
^Raupach, Michael R.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jotzo, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Le Quéré, Corinne (21 September 2014). "Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions". Nature Climate Change. 4 (10): 873–879. Bibcode:2014NatCC...4..873R. doi:10.1038/nclimate2384. hdl:11250/2484054.
^Clark, Peter U.; Mix, Alan C.; Eby, Michael; Levermann, Anders; Rogelj, Joeri; Nauels, Alexander; Wrathall, David J. (2018). "Sea-level commitment as a gauge for climate policy". Nature Climate Change. 8 (8): 653–655. Bibcode:2018NatCC...8..653C. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0226-6. hdl:10044/1/63152. ISSN 1758-678X. S2CID 91593244.
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^Rogelj, J., Shindell, D., Jiang, K., Fifita, S., Forster, P., Ginzburg, V., Handa, C., Kheshgi, H., Kobayashi, S., Kriegler, E., Mundaca, L., Séférian, R., Vilariño, M. V. (2018). "Global Warming of 1.5 °C: an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty". In Flato, G., Fuglestvedt, J., Mrabet, R., Schaeffer, R. (eds.). Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development. IPCC/WMO. pp. 93–174.
^Rogelj, Joeri; Forster, Piers M.; Kriegler, Elmar; Smith, Christopher J.; Séférian, Roland (2019-07-18). "Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets". Nature. 571 (7765): 335–342. Bibcode:2019Natur.571..335R. doi:10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z. hdl:10044/1/78011. ISSN 0028-0836. PMID 31316194. S2CID 197542084.
^ abMatthews, H. Damon; Tokarska, Katarzyna B.; Nicholls, Zebedee R. J.; Rogelj, Joeri; Canadell, Josep G.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Forster, Piers M.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jackson, Robert B. (2020). "Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy". Nature Geoscience. 13 (12): 769–779. Bibcode:2020NatGe..13..769M. doi:10.1038/s41561-020-00663-3. hdl:20.500.11850/454127. ISSN 1752-0894. S2CID 227236155.
^Canadell, J.G., P.M.S. Monteiro, M.H. Costa, L. Cotrim da Cunha, P.M. Cox, A.V. Eliseev, S. Henson, M. Ishii, S. Jaccard, C. Koven, A. Lohila, P.K. Patra, S. Piao, J. Rogelj, S. Syampungani, S. Zaehle, and K. Zickfeld, 2021: Chapter 5: Global Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 673–816, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.007.
^Zickfeld, K.; Arora, V. K.; Gillett, N. P. (March 2012). "Is the climate response to CO emissions path dependent?". Geophysical Research Letters. 39 (5): n/a. Bibcode:2012GeoRL..39.5703Z. doi:10.1029/2011gl050205.
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^ abNauels, Alex; Rosen, Debbie; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Maycock, Amanda; McKenna, Christine; Roegli, Joeri; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Smith, Ela; Smith, Chris; Forster, Piers (2019). "ZERO IN ON the remaining carbon budget and decadal warming rates. The CONSTRAIN Project Annual Report 2019". University of Leeds. doi:10.5518/100/20. {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
^Cite error: The named reference :9 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
A carbonbudget is a concept used in climate policy to help set emissions reduction targets in a fair and effective way. It examines the "maximum amount...
Established in 2001, its projects include global budgets for three dominant greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O)—and...
activities intensify the greenhouse effect. This contributes to climate change. Carbon dioxide (CO2), from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural...
an important part of the natural carbon cycle. An overarching term is carbon pool, which is all the places where carbon on Earth can be, i.e. the atmosphere...
source of available carbon in the carbon cycle, atmospheric CO2 is the primary carbon source for life on Earth. In the air, carbon dioxide is transparent...
change. The Committee provides advice on setting carbonbudgets (for the UK Government carbonbudgets are designed to place a limit or ceiling on the level...
The carbon cycle is that part of the biogeochemical cycle by which carbon is exchanged among the biosphere, pedosphere, geosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere...
aircraft could generate 43 Gt of carbon dioxide emissions through 2050, consuming almost 5% of the remaining global carbonbudget. Without regulation, global...
these projects are twice the 1.5°C carbonbudget of the Paris Agreement. According to these researchers, defusing carbon bombs should be a priority for climate...
Global net zero emissions describes the state where emissions of carbon dioxide due to human activities and removals of these gases are in balance over...
uncertainty in current volcanic/tectonic carbon outgassing makes answering fundamental questions about the global carbonbudget virtually impossible. In particular...
to the idea of a carbonbudget. The TCRE can be calculated based on a formula for the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions (measured...
allowances to the remaining carbonbudget. Current implementations are only designed to meet certain reduction targets. Carbon pricing is considered by many...
as they become unusable in order to meet carbonbudgets and recognition of negative externalities of carbon fuels which are not yet taken into account...
with a downshift of fossil fuel production to stay within the carbon emissions budget. In this context, the term energy transition encompasses a reorientation...
of carbonbudget left, such as the MCC, which as of May 2022 shows "7 years 1 month left" and different likelihoods have different carbonbudgets: a 83%...
mollusks (carbonate pump). Budget calculations of the biological carbon pump are based on the ratio between sedimentation (carbon export to the ocean floor)...
November 2023. Global Carbon Project (2022) Supplemental data of Global CarbonBudget 2022 (Version 1.0) [Data set]. Global Carbon Project. https://doi...
Carbon sequestration is the process of storing carbon in a carbon pool.: 2248 It plays a crucial role in mitigating climate change by reducing the amount...
world's remaining carbonbudget for 1.5 °C of global warming is only half that of previous estimates, at less than 250 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide, or around...
November 2023. Global Carbon Project (2022) Supplemental data of Global CarbonBudget 2022 (Version 1.0) [Data set]. Global Carbon Project. https://doi...
percent of the earth's remaining carbonbudget. By 2100 it will emit 260 billion tonnes, more than half of the carbonbudget. Those are emission from production...
other time-varying quantities such as atmospheric CO2 concentration, carbonbudget, and arctic sea ice volume. Hawkins credited a "Friday afternoon" email...