The Keys to the White House is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting prediction methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction.
The system is a thirteen-point checklist that assesses the situation of the country and political system ahead of a presidential election: when five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the incumbent party nominee is predicted to win the election, but when six or more items on the checklist are false, the challenging party nominee is predicted to win.
Some of the items on the checklist involve qualitative judgment, and therefore the system relies heavily on the knowledge and analytical skill of whoever attempts to apply it. Using the system, Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcomes of nine out of ten presidential elections since 1984, with the sole exception of the 2000 election.
From the content of the system, Lichtman says voters select the next president mainly on how they feel the president has governed the country. If the voters are satisfied with the governance of the country, they will re-elect the president or the nominee of the incumbent party, but if they are dissatisfied, they will transfer the presidency to the challenging party. Lichtman has said that election campaigns have little, if any, meaningful effect on voters, who are pragmatic and are not swayed by the spectacle of campaigning, voting retrospectively rather than prospectively.
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