21st-century American pollster and political consultant
Robert Cahaly
Born
Robert C. Cahaly
Georgia, US
Alma mater
University of South Carolina (BA)
Occupations
Pollster
political consultant
Organization
Trafalgar Group
Known for
Weighting opinion polls to account for a purported "shyness" among Donald Trump supporters
Political party
Republican
Robert C. Cahaly is an American pollster and founder of the Trafalgar Group. He was previously a political consultant for Republican Party candidates.[1]
Cahaly founded Trafalgar Group in 2016. He drew attention in the aftermath of the election, in which Trafalgar had been one of the only polling firms to predict Donald Trump's victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election. Cahaly claimed that Trafalgar's polling methodology was more accurate than other polls because it utilized methods to increase the weighting of supposed "shy, pro-Trump" voters, which he argued to be underrepresented in most polls.[2] Cahaly does not disclose Trafalgar's group's methods of polling or its process for ascertaining the volume of shy Trump voters in the electorate.[3]
Leading up to the 2020 presidential election, Cahaly garnered substantial media attention for his assertions that Trump would prevail over Joe Biden in the 2020 election, a claim that contradicted the polling consensus.[4][5] Cahaly's prediction of a Trump victory proved to be wrong, with him (and Trafalgar) incorrectly predicting Trump victories in five battleground states won by Biden.[6]
^"Robert Cahaly".
^Cahaly, Robert (October 29, 2020). "Polling Methodology". Trafalgar Group. Retrieved October 29, 2020.
^Russonello, Giovanni; Lyall, Sarah (8 November 2020). "The One Pollster in America Who is Sure Trump is Going to Win". The New York Times.
^Russonello, Giovanni; Lyall, Sarah (4 November 2020). "The One Pollster in America Who Is Sure Trump Is Going to Win". The New York Times. Retrieved 5 November 2020.
^Kaut, Kendall (6 November 2020). "Trafalgar's Missed a Lot in 2018 and 2020".
^Philip Bump (2020-11-16). "It's important to ask why 2020 polls were off. It's more important to ask what will happen next". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286.
Mehmet Oz, Tim Michels, and Herschel Walker, would all win. "RobertCahaly". Cahaly, Robert (October 29, 2020). "Polling Methodology". Trafalgar Group....
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