Estimated likelihood of precipitation occurring within a specified forecast region
"Chance of rain" redirects here. For other uses, see Chance of Rain.
Probability of precipitation (PoP) is a commonly used term referring to the likelihood of precipitation falling in a particular area over a defined period of time, which is commonly a day, half day, or hour.
The PoP measure is meaningless unless it is associated with an interval of time. Forecasts commonly use PoP defined over 12-hour periods (PoP12), though 6-hour periods (PoP6) and other measures are also published. A "daytime" PoP12 means from 6 am to 6 pm.[1]
PoPs are generally not statistically independent. A good example of an event that has a strongly dependent hour-to-hour PoP is a hurricane. In that case, there may be a 1 in 5 chance of the hurricane hitting a given stretch of coast, but if it does arrive there will be rain for several hours, with the effect that a one-hour PoP for the same region and period would be similar: about 1 in 5. Localized thunderstorms may be less dependent, with the effect that the one-hour PoPs may be somewhat less than the one-day PoP.[2]
^Enyedi, Angie (27 August 2010). "What are PoPs?". National Weather Service, Jacksonville, FL. Archived from the original on 10 June 2015. Retrieved 27 November 2018.
^Gorski, Chris (21 August 2014). "How Do Daily Weather Forecasts Relate To Hourly Forecasts? It Depends". Inside Science. Retrieved 4 December 2018.
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