In psychometrics, predictive validity is the extent to which a score on a scale or test predicts scores on some criterion measure.[1][2]
For example, the validity of a cognitive test for job performance is the correlation between test scores and, for example, supervisor performance ratings. Such a cognitive test would have predictive validity if the observed correlation were statistically significant.
Predictive validity shares similarities with concurrent validity in that both are generally measured as correlations between a test and some criterion measure. In a study of concurrent validity the test is administered at the same time as the criterion is collected. This is a common method of developing validity evidence for employment tests: A test is administered to incumbent employees, then a rating of those employees' job performance is, or has already been, obtained independently of the test (often, as noted above, in the form of a supervisor rating). Note the possibility for restriction of range both in test scores and performance scores: The incumbent employees are likely to be a more homogeneous and higher performing group than the applicant pool at large.
In a strict study of predictive validity, the test scores are collected first. Then, at some later time the criterion measure is collected. Thus, for predictive validity, the employment test example is slightly different: Tests are administered, perhaps to job applicants, and then after those individuals work in the job for a year, their test scores are correlated with their first year job performance scores. Another relevant example is SAT scores: These are validated by collecting the scores during the examinee's senior year and high school and then waiting a year (or more) to correlate the scores with their first year college grade point average. Thus predictive validity provides somewhat more useful data about test validity because it has greater fidelity to the real situation in which the test will be used. After all, most tests are administered to find out something about future behavior.
As with many aspects of social science, the magnitude of the correlations obtained from predictive validity studies is usually not high.[3] A typical predictive validity for an employment test might obtain a correlation in the neighborhood of r = .35. Higher values are occasionally seen and lower values are very common. Nonetheless, the utility (that is the benefit obtained by making decisions using the test) provided by a test with a correlation of .35 can be quite substantial. More information, and an explanation of the relationship between variance and predictive validity, can be found here.[4]
psychometrics, predictivevalidity is the extent to which a score on a scale or test predicts scores on some criterion measure. For example, the validity of a cognitive...
Although concurrent and predictivevalidity are similar, it is cautioned to keep the terms and findings separated. "Concurrent validity should not be used...
up validity or valid in Wiktionary, the free dictionary. Validity or Valid may refer to: Validity (logic), a property of a logical argument Validity (statistics)...
generalizability of validity across different work contexts alternative methods of demonstrating validity, such as synthetic validity the predictivevalidity of non-traditional...
contrast to predictivevalidity, where one measure occurs earlier and is meant to predict some later measure. In both cases, the (concurrent) predictive power...
scope of validity by dividing it into four parts: (a) concurrent validity, (b) predictivevalidity, (c) content validity, and (d) construct validity. Cronbach...
grades and college freshman grades when the SAT is factored in. The predictivevalidity and powers of the SAT are topics of research in psychometrics. The...
been criticized for lacking face and predictivevalidity in the workplace. However, in terms of construct validity, ability EI tests have great advantage...
Incremental validity is a type of validity that is used to determine whether a new psychometric assessment will increase the predictive ability beyond...
associated with depression. Criteria for valid animal models include face, construct, and predictivevalidity. Endophenotypes, such as anhedonia, behavioral...
researchers saw "predictive, concurrent, and content validities as essentially ad hoc, construct validity was the whole of validity from a scientific...
type of gait and (vi) mental status", and it has been shown to have predictivevalidity and interrater reliability. The MFS is used widely in acute care...
context of symptoms into account when making ratings. Furthermore, the validity of the ARS is acceptable, but the normative sample used to calculate this...
Trenkic, Danijela; Varga, Julia (April 3, 2023). "Examining the predictivevalidity of the Duolingo English Test: Evidence from a major UK university"...
Assessment who administer the test. A 2022 paper entitled BMAT’s predictivevalidity for medical school performance: a retrospective cohort study by Davies...
functioning in infants with Down syndrome. Researchers assessed the predictivevalidity of the BSID-II Mental Development Index (MDI) for cognitive function...
observer ratings of SI to predict the leadership effectiveness ratings from other observers, offering predictivevalidity for SI even when controlling...
considerable weight." UCAT has been shown to have some independent predictivevalidity of performance at medical school, but considerably less than A-levels...
even though the score is not a quotient per se. Causes for c and predictivevalidity are investigated as well. Writers who have influenced the idea of...
of validity and has special value under certain conditions. Types of validity include content validity, predictivevalidity, and construct validity. Sampling...
Watkins, M.W., Kush, J., & Glutting, J.J. (1997). Discriminant and predictivevalidity of the WISC-III ACID profile among children with learning disabilities...
Bergstrom) Predictivevalidity of the Braden scale for pressure sore risk in a nursing home population" (1994, with Nancy Bergstrom) "Predicting Pressure...
the predictivevalidity of the MAT in both academic and occupational settings. Their meta-analytic study indicated that the MAT is a validpredictor in...
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