Sabermetric system for forecasting baseball player performance
PECOTA, an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm,[1] is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance. The word is a backronym based on the name of journeyman major league player Bill Pecota, who, with a lifetime batting average of .249, is perhaps representative of the typical PECOTA entry. PECOTA was developed by Nate Silver in 2002–2003 and introduced to the public in the book Baseball Prospectus 2003.[2] Baseball Prospectus (BP) has owned PECOTA since 2003; Silver managed PECOTA from 2003 to 2009. Beginning in Spring 2009, BP assumed responsibility for producing the annual forecasts, making 2010 the first baseball season for which Silver played no role in producing PECOTA projections.[3]
One of several widely publicized statistical systems of forecasts of player performance, PECOTA player forecasts are marketed by BP as a fantasy baseball product. Since 2003, annual PECOTA forecasts have been published both in the Baseball Prospectus annual books and, in more detailed form, on the BaseballProspectus.com subscription-based website.[4] PECOTA also inspired some analogous projection systems for other professional sports: KUBIAK for the National Football League, SCHOENE[5] and CARMELO[6] for the National Basketball Association, and VUKOTA[7] for the National Hockey League.
PECOTA forecasts a player's performance in all of the major categories used in typical fantasy baseball games; it also forecasts production in advanced sabermetric categories developed by Baseball Prospectus (e.g., VORP and EqA). In addition, PECOTA forecasts several summary diagnostics such as breakout rates, improve rates, and attrition rates, as well as the market values of the players. The logic and methodology underlying PECOTA have been described in several publications, but the detailed formulas are proprietary and have not been shared with the baseball research community.[citation needed]
^Nate Silver, "Introducing PECOTA," in Gary Huckabay, Chris Kahrl, Dave Pease et al., Eds., Baseball Prospectus 2003 (Dulles, VA: Brassey's Publishers, 2003): 507–514.
^Nate Silver and Kevin Goldstein, "State of the Prospectus: Spring 2009," BaseballProspectus.com, March 24, 2009 Archived March 27, 2009, at the Wayback Machine.
^Illustrative PECOTA estimates and "cards" are available for inspection by nonsubscribers here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/pecota/.
PECOTA, an acronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player...
Pecota may refer to: PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm), a statistical method for baseball analysis Bill Pecota This...
William Joseph Pecota (born February 16, 1960) is an American former Major League Baseball infielder. He is the namesake of PECOTA, a sabermetric created...
interest in baseball and statistics, and on the side he began to work on his PECOTA system for projecting player performance and careers. He quit his job at...
Marco Pecota is the co-publisher of Rue Morgue and owner of Veni Vidi Vici Motion Pictures. He was a Genie Award nominee at the 29th Genie Awards as a...
a former writer and managing partner of Baseball Prospectus, invented PECOTA in 2002–2003, introducing it to the public in the book Baseball Prospectus...
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example, this is the premise of Nate Silver's forecasts of ERAs using his PECOTA system. Silver also developed a "quick" earned run average (QuikERA or QERA)...
by a Royal. On December 11, 1991, Saberhagen was traded along with Bill Pecota to the New York Mets in exchange for Kevin McReynolds, Gregg Jefferies,...
performance developed by Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus. A player's "PECOTA" may be the forecasted range of his performance on a variety of indicators...
graduated, Click wrote for Baseball Prospectus, helping to maintain their PECOTA algorithm. After being recommended by Chaim Bloom, who worked with Click...
later in the game against the Los Angeles Dodgers. September 26 – Bill Pecota becomes the first position player for the New York Mets to pitch in a game...
contributors of 1994. The team lost Terry Pendleton, Dave Gallagher, and Bill Pecota to free agency. Roberto Kelly and Tony Tarasco were also traded with Esteban...
Evidence-based practices Casey Award Ball Four Bull Durham Nate Silver who developed PECOTA, the Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, to predict...
Rodrigo Gudiño Written by Rodrigo Gudiño Produced by Jake Koseleci, Marco Pecota Starring Aaron Poole Vanessa Redgrave Julian Richings Cinematography Samy...
Royals for former All-Star pitcher Bret Saberhagen and utility man Bill Pecota, ending his stay with the Mets. After playing the 1992 season with the Royals...
players. For fantasy baseball, typical preseason projection systems such as PECOTA construct depth charts that specify not just the order of the players at...
Written by Rodrigo Gudiño Produced by Brenton Bentz, Rodrigo Gudiño, Marco Pecota Starring Julian Richings, Alan Alderton, Lea Lawrynowicz Cinematography...
Camp Lazlo DJ Patil, Former chief data scientist of the United States Bill Pecota, former Major League Baseball player Jeff Sevy, former National Football...
traded by the Mets to the Kansas City Royals for Bret Saberhagen and Bill Pecota. December 11, 1991: Jeff Gardner was traded by the Mets to the San Diego...
2009) 1978 – Nate Silver, American journalist and statistician, developed PECOTA 1979 – Katy Brand, English actress and screenwriter 1980 – Krzysztof Czerwiński...
Prospectus employs a projection system developed by Nate Silver known as PECOTA which applies nearest neighbor analysis to calculate similarities between...
Defensa. Andrews, Evan (May 8, 2023). "The Sinking of Andrea Doria". History. Pecota, Samuel (January 18, 2012). "In Andrea Doria wreck, a captain who shone"...
the statistics predicted for each hitter in Baseball Prospectus's annual PECOTA forecasts. EqA is scaled like a batting average, which is the number of...
call by Kalas was his description of Mitch Williams's strikeout of Bill Pecota for the final out of Game 6 of the 1993 National League Championship Series...
the concept dates back to Branch Rickey and his statistician Allan Roth. PECOTA McCue, Andy. "Allan Roth". Society for American Baseball Research. Retrieved...
figure skater, Olympic gold medalist and two-time world champion Bill Pecota, Class of 1977 or 1978, Major League Baseball player, Kansas City Royals...
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