The law of truly large numbers (a statistical adage), attributed to Persi Diaconis and Frederick Mosteller, states that with a large enough number of independent samples, any highly implausible (i.e. unlikely in any single sample, but with constant probability strictly greater than 0 in any sample) result is likely to be observed.[1] Because we never find it notable when likely events occur, we highlight unlikely events and notice them more. The law is often used to falsify different pseudo-scientific claims; as such, it is sometimes criticized by fringe scientists.[2][3]
The law is meant to make a statement about probabilities and statistical significance: in large enough masses of statistical data, even minuscule fluctuations attain statistical significance. Thus in truly large numbers of observations, it is paradoxically easy to find significant correlations, in large numbers, which still do not lead to causal theories (see: spurious correlation), and which by their collective number,[4] might lead to obfuscation as well.
The law can be rephrased as "large numbers also deceive", something which is counter-intuitive to a descriptive statistician. More concretely, skeptic Penn Jillette has said, "Million-to-one odds happen eight times a day in New York" (population about 8,000,000).[5]
^Everitt 2002
^Beitman, Bernard D., (15 Apr 2018), Intrigued by the Low Probability of Synchronicities? Coincidence theorists and statisticians dispute the meaning of rare events. at PsychologyToday
^Sharon Hewitt Rawlette, (2019), Coincidence or Psi? The Epistemic Import of Spontaneous Cases of Purported Psi Identified Post-Verification, Journal of Scientific Exploration, Vol. 33, No. 1, pp. 9–42[unreliable source?]
^Tyler Vigen, 2015, Spurious Correlations Correlation does not equal causation, book website with examples
^Kida, Thomas E. (Thomas Edward) (2006). Don't believe everything you think : the 6 basic mistakes we make in thinking. Amherst, N.Y.: Prometheus Books. p. 97. ISBN 1615920056. OCLC 1019454221.
and 20 Related for: Law of truly large numbers information
The lawoftrulylargenumbers (a statistical adage), attributed to Persi Diaconis and Frederick Mosteller, states that with a large enough number of independent...
theory, the lawoflargenumbers (LLN) is a mathematical theorem that states that the average of the results obtained from a large number of independent...
direct intervention of God into the world. A miracle may be false information or simply a fictional story, rather than something that truly happened. A miracle...
inevitable on a busy network due to the lawoftrulylargenumbers. Limiting c helps to reduce the possibility of unexpectedly long transmission latencies...
Statistical regularity LawoflargenumbersLawoftrulylargenumbers Central limit theorem Regression toward the mean Examples of "laws" with a weaker foundation...
of magnitude larger than the observable universe. Encyclopedia Galactica (Asimov) Akashic Records Infinite monkey theorem Lawoftrulylargenumbers Normal...
paradox of the Grand Hotel – Thought experiment of infinite sets, another thought experiment involving infinity Lawoftrulylargenumbers – Lawof statistics...
statistician Lawof total covariance Lawof total cumulance Lawof total expectation Lawof total probability Lawof total variance Lawoftrulylargenumbers Layered...
coincidences (lawoftrulylargenumbers), solely nature of big randomness (Ramsey theory), or existence of non-included factors so the hope, of early experimenters...
theorem Information geometry LawofTrulyLargeNumbers Littlewood's law Observational error Principle of indifference Principle of maximum entropy Probability...
of the History of Mathematics. Springer. pp. 18–24. "Complex numbers, as much as reals, and perhaps even more, find a unity with nature that is truly...
European Union law is a system of rules operating within the member states of the European Union (EU). Since the founding of the European Coal and Steel...
below) to the common mean, μ, of the random variables Yi. This result is known as the weak lawoflargenumbers. Other forms of convergence are important...
other techniques. Because of the mechanical nature of these techniques, generating large quantities of sufficiently random numbers (important in statistics)...
"physical law" to mean the lawsof nature as they truly are and not as they are inferred by scientists. See Norman Swartz, The Concept of Physical Law (New...