The junkyard tornado, sometimes known as Hoyle's fallacy, is an argument against abiogenesis, using a calculation of its probability based on false assumptions, as comparable to "a tornado sweeping through a junk-yard might assemble a Boeing 747 from the materials therein" and to compare the chance of obtaining even a single functioning protein by chance combination of amino acids to a solar system full of blind men solving Rubik's Cubes simultaneously.[1][2][3][4] It was used originally by English astronomer Fred Hoyle (1915–2001) in his book The Intelligent Universe, where he tried to apply statistics to evolution and the origin of life.[1] Similar reasoning were advanced in Darwin's time,[2] and indeed as long ago as Cicero in classical antiquity.[5] While Hoyle himself was an atheist, the argument has since become a mainstay in the rejection of evolution by religious groups.
Hoyle's fallacy contradicts many well-established and widely tested principles in the field of evolutionary biology.[6] As the fallacy argues, the odds of the sudden construction of higher lifeforms are indeed improbable. However, what the junkyard tornado postulation fails to take into account is the vast amount of support that evolution proceeds in many smaller stages, each driven by natural selection[7] rather than by random chance, over a long period of time.[8] The Boeing 747 was not designed in a single unlikely burst of creativity, just as modern lifeforms were not constructed in one single unlikely event, as the junkyard tornado scenario suggests.
The theory of evolution has been studied and tested extensively by numerous researchers and scientists and is the most scientifically accurate explanation for the origins of complex life.
^ abHoyle, Fred (1984). The Intelligent Universe. Holt, Rinehart, and Winston. ISBN 9780030700835.
^ abMusgrave, Ian (December 21, 1998). "Lies, Damned Lies, Statistics, and Probability of Abiogenesis Calculations". TalkOrigins Archive.
^Johnson, George (October 28, 2007). "Bright Scientists, Dim Notions". New York Times.
^Gatherer, Derek (2008). "Finite Universe of Discourse: The Systems Biology of Walter Elsasser (1904-1991)" (PDF). The Open Biology Journal. 1: 9–20. doi:10.2174/1874196700801010009.
^Cicero. De Natura Deorum 2.37
^National Academy of Sciences (US) (1999). "Evidence Supporting Biological Evolution". Science and Creationism: A View from the National Academy of Sciences (2nd ed.). Washington, DC: National Academies Press (US).
^Osterloff, Emily (2018). "What is natural selection?". Natural History Museum, London. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
^Appleton, Sarah; Willis, Margot (August 2, 2022). "Natural Selection". education.nationalgeographic.org. National Geographic Society. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
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