How ignorance intersects with rational choice to undertake a project
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The hiding hand principle is a theory that offers a framework to examine how ignorance (particularly concerning future obstacles when person first decides to take on a project) intersects with rational choice to undertake a project; the intersection is seen to provoke creative success over the obstacles through the deduction that it is too late to abandon the project. The term was coined by economist Albert O. Hirschman.
Writing in The New Yorker, Malcolm Gladwell brought the concept to life, retelling the story of the construction of a railway tunnel through Hoosac Mountain in northwestern Massachusetts. Construction proved much harder than anticipated, but eventually was completed, with positive results. Gladwell was reviewing the book, "Worldly Philosopher: The Odyssey of Albert O. Hirschman," by Jeremy Adelman (Princeton University Press, 2013).
Bent Flyvbjerg and Cass Sunstein take issue with Hirschman's principle and argue that there are really two Hiding Hands, a Benevolent Hiding Hand, which is the one Hirschman talks about, and a Malevolent Hiding Hand, which obstructs projects instead of creatively saving them.[1] In an empirical test of 2,062 projects, Flyvbjerg and Sunstein found that the Malevolent Hiding Hand applied in 78% of cases, whereas Hirschman's Benevolent Hiding Hand applied in only 22% of cases, contrary to Hirschman's belief that the Benevolent Hiding Hand "typically" applies. Flyvbjerg and Sunstein also argue that the Malevolent Hiding Hand is the planning fallacy writ large.
^Flyvbjerg, Bent; Sunstein, Cass R (Winter 2016). "The Principle of the Malevolent Hiding Hand; or, the Planning Fallacy Writ Large". Social Research: An International Quarterly. 83 (4). Johns Hopkins University Press: 979–1004. arXiv:1509.01526. doi:10.1353/sor.2016.0063. ISSN 1944-768X.
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