This article is about the requirements for logical coherence in probability theory. For books written in the Dutch language, see Dutch literature.
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In gambling, economics, and the philosophy of probability, a Dutch book or lock is a set of odds and bets that ensures a guaranteed profit (regardless of the outcome being bet on).[1] It is generally used as a thought experiment to motivate Von Neumann–Morgenstern axioms or the axioms of probability by showing they are equivalent to philosophical coherence or Pareto efficiency.
In economics, the term usually refers to a sequence of trades that would leave one party strictly worse off (effectively "burning money"). Typical assumptions in rational choice theory (namely, the Von Neumann–Morgenstern axioms) rule out Dutch books. These assumptions are weakened by behavioral economics.
In philosophy the Dutch book argument is used to explore degrees of certainty in beliefs,[2] showing that rational agents must be Bayesian (i.e. assign probabilities to events).
There is no agreement on the etymology of the term.[3]
^"Dutch Book Arguments". The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Metaphysics Research Lab, Stanford University. 2016.
^Bovens, Luc; Rabinowicz, Wlodek (2012). "Bets on Hats: On Dutch Books Against Groups, Degrees of Belief as Betting Rates, and Group-Reflection". Episteme. 8 (3): 281–300. doi:10.3366/epi.2011.0022. ISSN 1742-3600. S2CID 53515618.
^Hajek, Alan Dutch Book Arguments, Chapter 7 in The Oxford Handbook of Rational and Social Choice, ed. Paul Anand, Prasanta Pattanaik, and Clemens Puppe, 173-195, Oxford University Press
In gambling, economics, and the philosophy of probability, a Dutchbook or lock is a set of odds and bets that ensures a guaranteed profit (regardless...
rigorous. Bruno de Finetti proposed the Dutchbook argument based on betting. A clever bookmaker makes a Dutchbook by setting the odds and bets to ensure...
Dutch Golden Age (Dutch: Gouden Eeuw [ˈɣʌudə(n) ˈeːu]) was a period in the history of the Netherlands which roughly lasted from 1588, when the Dutch Republic...
entirely or partially written in vernacular European languages, especially Dutch. The closely related primer is occasionally considered synonymous with books...
often motivate the Kolmogorov axioms by invoking Cox's theorem or the Dutchbook arguments instead. The assumptions as to setting up the axioms can be...
A Dutch baby pancake, sometimes called a German pancake, a Bismarck, a Dutch puff, Hooligan, or a Hootenanny, is a dish that is similar to a large Yorkshire...
vulnerable to Dutch books. The converse Dutchbook theorem states that no credence assignment following these axioms is vulnerable to a Dutchbook. In the philosophy...
a Dutchbook which is when a bookmaker goes overbroke (the opposite to overround). It is thought[according to whom?] the strategy behind Dutching was...
The Pennsylvania Dutch (Pennsylvania Dutch: Pennsylvanisch Deitsche), also referred to as Pennsylvania Germans, are an ethnic group in Pennsylvania and...
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Boekhistorische Vereniging" [DutchBook Historical Society] (in English and Dutch). "Belgisch-Nederlands Boekbandengenootschap" (in Dutch). Depot van Nederlandse...
English term "Dutch uncle." Another book that advocates this theory is The UnDutchables, which assigns comparable characteristics to Dutch people: "not...
Seven United Netherlands (Dutch: Republiek der Zeven Verenigde Nederlanden), and commonly referred to in historiography as the Dutch Republic, was a confederation...
canceled, or even the closure of the bettor's account. Advantage gambling Dutchbook Mathematics of bookmaking Sports betting Cortis, Dominic (2015). "Expected...
as the translation of the 1992 Dutchbook Oei, ik groei! The 6th edition in 2019 includes a chapter on sleep. The book claims that the cognitive development...
proportions in order to make a profit regardless of which outcome prevails. See Dutchbook and coherence (philosophical gambling strategy). This is achieved primarily...
Dutch language White paper (disambiguation) Barebook Black Book (disambiguation) Blue book (disambiguation) Green Book (disambiguation) Orange Book (disambiguation)...
An oliebol (Dutch pronunciation: [ˈoːlibɔl], plural oliebollen, West Frisian: Oaljebol or Oaljekoek) is a Dutch beignet, doughnut or fried dough that...
stress and burnout. This concept is the focus of a book by Olga Meching entitled "Niksen: Embracing the Dutch Art of Doing Nothing," published in 2021. Mecking...
The Dutch Shepherd is a herding dog of Dutch origin. They were used by shepherds and farmers who needed a versatile dog, with few demands, and a dog that...
Dutch Americans (Dutch: Nederlandse Amerikanen) are Americans of Dutch and Flemish descent whose ancestors came from the Low Countries in the distant past...
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