Twenty-year smoothed plots of averaged ring-width (dashed) and tree-ring density (thick line), averaged across all sites, and shown as standardized anomalies from a common base (1881–1940), and compared with equivalent-area averages of mean April–September temperature anomalies (thin solid line). From Briffa et al. 1998.[1]
The divergence problem is an anomaly from the field of dendroclimatology, the study of past climate through observations of old trees, primarily the properties of their annual growth rings. It is the disagreement between instrumental temperatures (measured by thermometers) and the temperatures reconstructed from latewood densities or, in some cases, from the widths of tree rings in far northern forests.
While the thermometer records indicate a substantial late 20th century warming trend, many tree rings from such sites do not display a corresponding change in their maximum latewood density. In some studies this issue has also been found with tree ring width.[2] A temperature trend extracted from tree rings alone would not show any substantial warming since the 1950s. The temperature graphs calculated in these two ways thus "diverge" from one another, which is the origin of the term.
^Briffa, K.R.; Schweingruber, F.H.; Jones, P.D.; Osborn, T.J.; Harris, I.C.; Shiyatov, S.G.; Vaganov, E.A.; Grudd, H. (29 January 1998). "Trees tell of past climates: but are they speaking less clearly today?". Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B. 353 (1365): 65–73. doi:10.1098/rstb.1998.0191. PMC 1692171.
^D'Arrigo, Rosanne; Wilson, Rob; Liepert, Beate; Cherubini, Paolo (2008). "On the 'Divergence Problem' in Northern Forests: A review of the tree-ring evidence and possible causes" (PDF). Global and Planetary Change. 60 (3–4). Elsevier: 289–305. Bibcode:2008GPC....60..289D. doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2007.03.004. S2CID 3537918. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2010-01-19.
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