Theorised tendency towards war between emerging and existing powers
Bust of Thucydides
The Thucydides Trap, or Thucydides' Trap, is a term popularized by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon.[1] The term exploded in popularity in 2015 and primarily applies to analysis of China–United States relations.[2]
Supporting the thesis, Allison led a study at Harvard University's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs which found that, among a sample of 16 historical instances of an emerging power rivaling a ruling power, 12 ended in war.[3]
That study, however, has come under considerable criticism, and scholarly opinion on the value of the Thucydides Trap concept—particularly as it relates to a potential military conflict between the United States and China—remains divided.[4][5][6][7][8]
^Cite error: The named reference JSTOR was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
^Rachman, Gideon (18 December 2018). "Year in a Word: Thucydides's trap". Financial Times. Retrieved 8 July 2020.
^
Allison, Graham (9 June 2017). "The Thucydides Trap". Retrieved 27 August 2023. The past 500 years have seen 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling one. Twelve of these ended in war.
^Freedman, Lawrence (12 January 2022). "What the Thucydides Trap gets wrong about China". New Statesman. Retrieved 30 July 2023.
^Mohammed, Farah (5 November 2018). "Can the US and China Avoid the Thucydides Trap?". JSTOR Daily. Retrieved 30 July 2023.
^McCormack, Win (17 March 2023). "The Thucydides Trap". The New Republic. ISSN 0028-6583. Retrieved 30 July 2023.
^Allison, Graham (24 September 2015). "The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?". The Atlantic. Retrieved 30 July 2023.
^"Stop seeing US-China relations through lens of Thucydides or Cold War". South China Morning Post. 10 December 2021. Retrieved 30 July 2023.
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