Testing hypotheses suggested by the data information
Problem of circular reasoning in statistics
"Post hoc theorizing" redirects here. Not to be confused with Post hoc analysis.
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In statistics, hypotheses suggested by a given dataset, when tested with the same dataset that suggested them, are likely to be accepted even when they are not true. This is because circular reasoning (double dipping) would be involved: something seems true in the limited data set; therefore we hypothesize that it is true in general; therefore we wrongly test it on the same, limited data set, which seems to confirm that it is true. Generating hypotheses based on data already observed, in the absence of testing them on new data, is referred to as post hoc theorizing (from Latin post hoc, "after this").
The correct procedure is to test any hypothesis on a data set that was not used to generate the hypothesis.
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In statistics, hypothesessuggestedby a given dataset, when tested with the same dataset that suggested them, are likely to be accepted even when they...
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properties of a population, for example bytestinghypotheses and deriving estimates. It is assumed that the observed data set is sampled from a larger population...
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Pearson, E.S. (1933). "Thetesting of statistical hypotheses in relation to probabilities a priori". Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical...
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