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Taeuber Paradox information


The Taeuber Paradox is a paradox in demography, which results from two seemingly contradictory expectations given a population-wide decrease in mortality, e.g. from curing or reducing the mortality of a disease in a population. The two expectations are:

  1. Since the disease would have otherwise caused some deaths, there should be fewer deaths if the disease is cured than in the world where the disease is not cured
  2. Since everyone dies eventually, there must in the long run be the same number of deaths, and the deaths will be redistributed among the remaining causes.[1]

The paradox was named after Conrad Taeuber,[1] a sociologist and demographer.[2]

  1. ^ a b Keyfitz, Nathan (November 1977). "What Difference Would It Make if Cancer Were Eradicated? An Examination of the Taeuber Paradox". Demography. 14 (4): 411–418. doi:10.2307/2060587. JSTOR 2060587. PMID 913728.
  2. ^ "Population Association of America".

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