Process tracing is a qualitative research method used to develop and test theories.[1][2][3] Process-tracing can be defined as the following: it is the systematic examination of diagnostic
evidence selected and analyzed in light of research questions and hypotheses posed by the investigator (Collier, 2011). Process-tracing thus focuses on (complex) causal relationships between the independent variable(s) and the outcome of the dependent variable(s), evaluates pre-existing hypotheses and discovers new ones. It is generally understood as a "within-case" method to draw inferences on the basis of causal mechanisms, but it can also be used for ideographic research or small-N case-studies.[4][5] It has been used in social sciences (such as in psychology[2]), as well as in natural sciences.[5]
Scholars that use process tracing evaluate the weight of evidence on the basis of the strength of tests (notably straw-in-the-wind tests, hoop tests, smoking gun tests, double decisive tests).[5] As a consequence, what matters is not solely the quantity of observations, but the quality and manner of observations.[5][6] By using Bayesian probability, it may be possible to make strong causal inferences from a small sliver of data through process tracing.[5][7] As a result, process tracing is a prominent case study method.[8] Process tracing can be used to study one or a few cases, in order to determine the changes that have occurred over time within these cases and causal mechanisms are responsible for this change.[1]
^ abCollier, David (2011). "Understanding Process Tracing". PS: Political Science & Politics. 44 (4): 823–830. doi:10.1017/s1049096511001429. ISSN 1049-0965.
^ abSchulte-Mecklenbeck, M.; Kühberger, A.; Ranyard, R., eds. (2011). A Handbook of Process Tracing Methods for Decision Research: A Critical Review and User's Guide. New York: Taylor & Francis.
^Ford, J. Kevin; Schmitt, Neal; Schechtman, Susan L.; Hults, Brian M.; Doherty, Mary L. (1989). "Process Tracing Methods: Contributions, Problems, and Neglected Research Questions". Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 43 (1): 75–117. doi:10.1016/0749-5978(89)90059-9.
^Jacobs, Alan M.; Büthe, Tim; Arjona, Ana; Arriola, Leonardo R.; Bellin, Eva; Bennett, Andrew; Björkman, Lisa; Bleich, Erik; Elkins, Zachary; Fairfield, Tasha; Gaikwad, Nikhar (2021). "The Qualitative Transparency Deliberations: Insights and Implications". Perspectives on Politics. Supplementary materials, Pt 2: 171–208. doi:10.1017/S1537592720001164. ISSN 1537-5927. S2CID 232050726.
^ abcdeBennett, Andrew (2008). Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M; Brady, Henry E; Collier, David (eds.). "Process Tracing: a Bayesian Perspective". The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology. doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199286546.001.0001. ISBN 978-0-19-928654-6.
^Gerring, John (2007). Case Study Research: Principles and Practices. Cambridge University Press. pp. 173, 180. ISBN 978-0-521-85928-8.
^Fairfield, Tasha; Charman, Andrew E. (2022). Social Inquiry and Bayesian Inference. Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-1-108-42164-5.
^Cite error: The named reference :4 was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
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