Predictions of the collapse of the Soviet Union information
There were people and organizations who predicted that the USSR would dissolve before the eventual dissolution of the USSR in 1991.[1]
Authors often credited with having predicted the dissolution of the Soviet Union include Leon Trotsky in his work The Revolution Betrayed: What Is the Soviet Union and Where Is It Going? (1936),[2] Andrei Amalrik in Will the Soviet Union Survive Until 1984? (1970), French academic Emmanuel Todd in La chute finale: Essais sur la décomposition de la sphère soviétique (The Final Fall: An essay on the decomposition of the Soviet sphere) (1976), economist Ravi Batra in his 1978 book The Downfall of Capitalism and Communism and French historian Hélène Carrère d'Encausse.[3] Additionally, Walter Laqueur notes that "Various articles that appeared in professional journals such as Problems of Communism and Survey dealt with the decay and the possible downfall of the Soviet regime."[4] Some Americans, particularly conservatives,[5][6] view Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative as not only predicting but causing the dissolution of the Soviet state.
Whether any particular prediction was correct is still a matter of debate, since they give different reasons and different time frames for the Soviet collapse.
^Historians point to dissolution beginning with the Polish Round Table Agreement in 1989
^August Nimtz. Krieger, Joel (ed). (2013). The Oxford Companion to Comparative Politics. OUP USA. p. 74. ISBN 978-0-19-973859-5.
^
Flora Lewis (1987). Europe: A Tapestry of Nations. USA: Simon and Schuster. p. 364. ISBN 0-671-44018-7.
^Laqueur, Walter (1996). The Dream that Failed : Reflections on the Soviet Union. USA: Oxford University Press. pp. 187–191. ISBN 0-19-510282-7.
^Knopf, Jeffrey W. (August 2004). "Did Reagan Win the Cold War?". Strategic Insights, Volume III, Issue 8. Center for Contemporary Conflict at the Naval Postgraduate School. Archived from the original on March 1, 2009. Retrieved 2006-04-19.
^Owens, Mackubin Thomas (June 5, 2004). "The Reagan of History: Reflections on the death of Ronald Reagan". National Review Online. Retrieved April 20, 2006.
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