Intuitive statistics, or folk statistics, is the cognitive phenomenon where organisms use data to make generalizations and predictions about the world. This can be a small amount of sample data or training instances, which in turn contribute to inductive inferences about either population-level properties, future data, or both. Inferences can involve revising hypotheses, or beliefs, in light of probabilistic data that inform and motivate future predictions. The informal tendency for cognitive animals to intuitively generate statistical inferences, when formalized with certain axioms of probability theory, constitutes statistics as an academic discipline.
Because this capacity can accommodate a broad range of informational domains, the subject matter is similarly broad and overlaps substantially with other cognitive phenomena. Indeed, some have argued that "cognition as an intuitive statistician" is an apt companion metaphor to the computer metaphor of cognition.[1] Others appeal to a variety of statistical and probabilistic mechanisms behind theory construction[2][3] and category structuring.[4][5] Research in this domain commonly focuses on generalizations relating to number, relative frequency, risk, and any systematic signatures in inferential capacity that an organism (e.g., humans, or non-human primates) might have.[1][6]
^ abGigerenzer, Gerd; Murray, David J. (2015). Cognition as intuitive statistics. London: Psychology Press. ISBN 9781138950221. OCLC 918941179.
^Gopnik, Alison (August 2011). "The Theory Theory 2.0: Probabilistic Models and Cognitive Development". Child Development Perspectives. 5 (3): 161–163. doi:10.1111/j.1750-8606.2011.00179.x. ISSN 1750-8592.
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^Nickerson, Raymond S. (2004). Cognition and chance : the psychology of probabilistic reasoning. Mahwah, N.J.: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. ISBN 9780805848991. OCLC 56115142.
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