The "hot hand" (also known as the "hot hand phenomenon" or "hot hand fallacy") is a phenomenon, previously considered a cognitive social bias,[1][circular reference] that a person who experiences a successful outcome has a greater chance of success in further attempts. The concept is often applied to sports and skill-based tasks in general and originates from basketball, where a shooter is more likely to score if their previous attempts were successful; i.e., while having the "hot hand.” While previous success at a task can indeed change the psychological attitude and subsequent success rate of a player, researchers for many years did not find evidence for a "hot hand" in practice, dismissing it as fallacious. However, later research questioned whether the belief is indeed a fallacy.[2][3] Some recent studies using modern statistical analysis have observed evidence for the "hot hand" in some sporting activities;[3] however, other recent studies have not observed evidence of the "hot hand".[4] Moreover, evidence suggests that only a small subset of players may show a "hot hand" and, among those who do, the magnitude (i.e., effect size) of the "hot hand" tends to be small.[5]
^"List of cognitive biases with examples" (PDF). Academy of Wisdom and Enlightenment. 15 January 2017.
^Green, Brett; Zwiebel, Jeffery. "The Hot Hand Fallacy: Cognitive Mistakes or Equilibrium Adjustments? Evidence from Baseball". Stanford Graduate School of Business. Retrieved 2016-05-06.
^ abMiller, Joshua B.; Sanjurjo, Adam (2016). "Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers". IGIER Working Paper (552). doi:10.2139/ssrn.2627354. S2CID 17952286.
^McNair, Brian; Margolin, Eric; Law, Michael; Ritov, Ya'acov (2020). "The Hot Hand and Its Effect on the NBA". arXiv:2010.15943 [stat.AP].
^Pelechrinis, Konstantinos; Winston, Wayne (2022). "The Hot Hand in the Wild". PLOS ONE. 17 (1): e0261890. Bibcode:2022PLoSO..1761890P. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0261890. PMC 8789340. PMID 35077477.
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