The gateway belief model (GBM) suggests that public perception of the degree of expert or scientific consensus on an issue functions as a so-called "gateway" cognition.[1][2] Perception of scientific agreement is suggested to be a key step towards acceptance of related beliefs.[3] Increasing the perception that there is normative agreement within the scientific community can increase individual support for an issue. A perception of disagreement may decrease support for an issue.[1][2]
Public opinion research has shown a "consensus gap" between the beliefs of the general public and the scientific community on a number of issues including climate change, vaccines, evolution, gun control, and GMO's.[4][5] The general public is assumed to underestimate the degree of agreement among scientists on established facts relating to these issues.[1]
According to the gateway belief model, views can be influenced by presenting information about the scientific consensus on a subject. Communicating accurate information about the scientific consensus on a topic reduces perceptions that there is disagreement within the scientific community. Some studies show a causal connection between changes in perceived consensus and subsequent attitudes on issues.[1][2]
In the case of climate change, perceptions of expert agreement are considered a precursor to related beliefs about whether and why climate change is happening.[2]: 130
In the case of COVID-19, perception of scientific consensus predicted personal attitudes and support for mitigation policies.[6]
The gateway belief model also implies that organized disinformation campaigns may be able to deliberately undermine public support for an issue by suggesting a lack of scientific consensus or amplifying opinions that disagree with the scientific consensus.[7] Undermining scientific consensus is therefore a frequent disinformation tactic.[8]
^ abcdGundersen, Torbjørn; Alinejad, Donya; Branch, T.Y.; Duffy, Bobby; Hewlett, Kirstie; Holst, Cathrine; Owens, Susan; Panizza, Folco; Tellmann, Silje Maria; van Dijck, José; Baghramian, Maria (17 October 2022). "A New Dark Age? Truth, Trust, and Environmental Science". Annual Review of Environment and Resources. 47 (1): 5–29. doi:10.1146/annurev-environ-120920-015909. hdl:10852/99734. ISSN 1543-5938. S2CID 250659393.
^ abcdHulme, Mike (27 November 2019). Contemporary Climate Change Debates: A Student Primer. Routledge. pp. 127–135. ISBN 978-0-429-82115-8.
^Hope, Debra A.; Bevins, Rick A. (26 September 2018). Change and Maintaining Change. Springer. ISBN 978-3-319-96920-6.
^Funk, Cary (29 January 2015). "Public and Scientists' Views on Science and Society". Pew Research Center Science & Society. Archived from the original on 9 October 2023. Retrieved 23 October 2023.
^"Major Gaps Between the Public, Scientists on Key Issues". Pew Research Center: Internet, Science & Tech. 1 July 2015.
^Kerr, John R.; van der Linden, Sander (2022). "Communicating expert consensus increases personal support for COVID‐19 mitigation policies". Journal of Applied Social Psychology. 52 (1): 15–29. doi:10.1111/jasp.12827. ISSN 0021-9029. PMC 8420497. PMID 34511636.
^Cite error: The named reference Koehler was invoked but never defined (see the help page).
^Lewandowsky, Stephan (1 April 2021). "Climate Change Disinformation and How to Combat It". Annual Review of Public Health. 42 (1): 1–21. doi:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-090419-102409. hdl:1983/c6a6a1f8-6ba4-4a12-9829-67c14c8ae2e5. ISSN 0163-7525. PMID 33355475. S2CID 229691604.
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