Global InformationCritical juncture theory information
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Critical juncture theory focuses on critical junctures, i.e., large, rapid, discontinuous changes,[1] and the long-term causal effect or historical legacy of these changes.[2] Critical junctures are turning points that alter the course of evolution of some entity (e.g., a species, a society). Critical juncture theory seeks to explain both (1) the historical origin and maintenance of social order, and (2) the occurrence of social change through sudden, big leaps.[3]
Critical juncture theory is not a general theory of social order and change.[4] It emphasizes one kind of cause (involving a big, discontinuous change) and kind of effect (a persistent effect).[5] Yet, it challenges some common assumptions in many approaches and theories in the social sciences. The idea that some changes are discontinuous sets it up as an alternative to (1) "continuist" or "synechist" theories that assume that change is always gradual or that natura non facit saltus – Latin for "nature does not make jumps."[6] The idea that such discontinuous changes have a long-term impact stands in counterposition to (2) "presentist" explanations that only consider the possible causal effect of temporally proximate factors.[7]
Theorizing about critical junctures began in the social sciences in the 1960s. Since then, it has been central to a body of research in the social sciences that is historically informed. Research on critical junctures in the social sciences is part of the broader tradition of comparative historical analysis and historical institutionalism.[8] It is a tradition that spans political science, sociology and economics. Within economics, it shares an interest in historically oriented research with the new economic history or cliometrics. Research on critical junctures is also part of the broader "historical turn" in the social sciences.[9]
- ^ Ruth Berins Collier and David Collier, Shaping the Political Arena: Critical Junctures, the Labor Movement, and the Regime Dynamics in Latin America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1991, p. 11; Peter Flora, "Introduction and Interpretation," p. 1–91, in Peter Flora (ed.), State Formation, Nation-Building, and Mass Politics in Europe: The Theory of Stein Rokkan. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 1999, pp. 37; Ira Katznelson, “Periodization and Preferences: Reflections on Purposive Action in Comparative Historical Social Science,” pp. 270–303, in James Mahoney and Dietrich Rueschemeyer (eds.), Comparative Historical Analysis in the Social Sciences. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2003, p. 282; Barry R. Weingast. "Persuasion, Preference, Change, and Critical Junctures: The Microfoundations of a Macroscopic Concept," pp. 129–60, in Ira Katznelson and Barry R. Weingast (eds.), Preferences and Situations: Points of Intersection Between Historical and Rational Choice Institutionalism. New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation, 2005, pp. 164–166, p. 164-165; Kenneth M. Roberts, Changing Course in Latin America: Party Systems in the Neoliberal Era. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2014, p. 43; David Collier and Gerardo L. Munck, "Building Blocks and Methodological Challenges: A Framework for Studying Critical Junctures." Qualitative and Multi-Method Research 15(1) 2017: 2–9, p. 2.
- ^ Peter Flora, "Introduction and Interpretation," p. 1–91, in Peter Flora (ed.), State Formation, Nation-Building, and Mass Politics in Europe: The Theory of Stein Rokkan. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 1999, pp. 36; Kenneth M. Roberts, Changing Course in Latin America: Party Systems in the Neoliberal Era. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2014, p. 42; David Collier and Gerardo L. Munck, "Building Blocks and Methodological Challenges: A Framework for Studying Critical Junctures." Qualitative and Multi-Method Research 15(1) 2017: 2–9, pp. 2, 6-8.
- ^ Arthur L Stinchcombe, Constructing Social Theories. New York, NY: Harcourt, Brace, and World, 1968, pp. 101-129; Ruth Berins Collier and David Collier, Shaping the Political Arena: Critical Junctures, the Labor Movement, and the Regime Dynamics in Latin America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1991, Ch. 1; Peter Flora, "Introduction and Interpretation," p. 1–91, in Peter Flora (ed.), State Formation, Nation-Building, and Mass Politics in Europe: The Theory of Stein Rokkan. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 1999, pp. 36–37; Paul Pierson, Politics in Time: History, Institutions, and Social Analysis. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2004, Ch. 3; Barry R. Weingast. "Persuasion, Preference, Change, and Critical Junctures: The Microfoundations of a Macroscopic Concept," pp. 129–60, in Ira Katznelson and Barry R. Weingast (eds.), Preferences and Situations: Points of Intersection Between Historical and Rational Choice Institutionalism. New York, NY: Russell Sage Foundation, 2005, pp. 164–166, 171; Steven Levitsky and María Victoria Murillo, "Building Institutions on Weak Foundations: Lessons from Latin America." Journal of Democracy 24(2)(2013): 93–107.
- ^ Steven Levitsky and María Victoria Murillo, “Building Institutions on Weak Foundations: Lessons from Latin America,” pp. 189–213, in Daniel Brinks, Marcelo Leiras, and Scott Mainwaring (eds.), Reflections on Uneven Democracies: The Legacy of Guillermo O’Donnell. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press, 2014; Johannes Gerschewski, “Explanations of Institutional Change. Reflecting on a ‘Missing Diagonal’.” American Political Science Review 115(1) 2021: 218–33.
- ^ Arthur L Stinchcombe, Constructing Social Theories. New York, NY: Harcourt, Brace, and World, 1968, pp. 101-129; David Collier and Gerardo L. Munck, "Building Blocks and Methodological Challenges: A Framework for Studying Critical Junctures." Qualitative and Multi-Method Research 15(1) 2017: 2–9; Munck, Gerardo L., "The Theoretical Foundations of Critical Juncture Research: Critique and Reconstruction" (July 20, 2021). Critical Junctures and Historical Legacies: Insights and Methods for Comparative Social Science, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3889801.
- ^ On the contrast between continuist and discontinuist theories, see Joseph Agassi, "Continuity and Discontinuity in the History of Science." Journal of the History of Ideas 34(4)(1973): 609-26. On the doctrine of synechism, the assumption that all changes entail differences of degree within a continuum and never differences in kind, see Charles S. Peirce, Philosophical Writings of Peirce. New York, NY: Dover Publications, 1955, Chapters 25 and 26. John L. Bell, "Continuity and Infinitesimals," The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (Summer 2017 Edition), Edward N. Zalta (ed.), URL = <https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/sum2017/entries/continuity/>.
- ^ The term "presentist" is used by Dietrich Rueschemeyer, Usable Theory: Analytic Tools for Social and Political Research. Princeton, NJ: Princeton. University Press, 2009, pp. 147–51.
- ^ Sven Steinmo, Kathleen Thelen, and Frank Longstreth (eds.), Structuring Politics: Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Analysis. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 1992; Kathleen Thelen, "Historical Institutionalism in Comparative Politics." Annual Review of Political Science 2 (1999): 369-404; Paul Pierson and Theda Skocpol, "Historical Institutionalism in Contemporary Political Science," pp. 693-721, in Ira Katznelson and Helen V. Milner (eds.), Political Science: The State of the Discipline. New York and Washington, DC: W.W. Norton & Co. and The American Political Science Association, 2002; James Mahoney and Dietrich Rueschemeyer (eds.), Comparative Historical Analysis in the Social Sciences. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2003; Matthew Lange, Comparative-Historical Methods. London: Sage, 2013; Orfeo Fioretos, Tulia G. Falleti, and Adam Sheingate (eds.), The Oxford Handbook of Historical Institutionalism. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 2016; Thomas Rixen, Lora Viola, and Michael Zuern (eds.), Historical Institutionalism and International Relations. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2016; Jørgen Møller, State Formation, Regime Change, and Economic Development. London: Routledge Press, 2017.
- ^ Terrence J. McDonald (ed.), The Historic Turn in the Human Sciences. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1996; Giovanni Capoccia and Daniel Ziblatt, "The Historical Turn in Democratization Studies: A New Research Agenda for Europe and Beyond." Comparative Political Studies 43(8/9)(2010): 931–968; Jørgen Møller, "When One Might Not See the Wood for the Trees: The ‘Historical Turn’ in Democratization Studies, Critical Junctures, and Cross-case Comparisons." Democratization 20(4)(2013), 693-715; Jo Guldi and David Armitage, The History Manifesto. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2014; Herbert S. Klein, "The 'Historical Turn' in the Social Sciences." The Journal of Interdisciplinary History 48(3)(2018): 295–312.