Republican gain Democratic hold Republican hold No election
The 2023 United States elections were held, in large part, on Tuesday, November 7, 2023. The off-year election included gubernatorial and state legislative elections in a few states, as well as numerous citizen initiatives, mayoral races, and a variety of other local offices on the ballot. At least three special elections to the United States Congress were scheduled as either deaths or vacancies arose. The Democratic Party retained control of the governorship in Kentucky, flipped the Wisconsin Supreme Court and held a seat on the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, gained six seats in the New Jersey General Assembly, and won back unified control of the Virginia General Assembly, while Republicans also flipped the governorship in Louisiana and narrowly retained Mississippi's governorship. The election cycle also saw Ohio voting to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution and legalize cannabis for recreational use. The results were widely seen as a success for the Democratic Party.
The election cycle was generally marked by a trend of strong Democratic overperformances in special elections. Daily Kos and FiveThirtyEight analyses of at least 38 races in September 2023[a] determined that the party outperformed the partisan lean by an average of 10 percent. In comparison, Democrats outperformed by an average of 4 percent in elections held between the 2018 and 2020 elections, and an average of 7.6 percent in elections held in 2020. The 2023 overperformances consisted of unusually larger margins of victory in races held in safely Democratic areas and unusually smaller margins of defeat in races held in safely Republican areas.[1][2] The results indicate a suburban shift among affluent, college-educated voters that started as an underlying reaction to Donald Trump's election in 2016.[3] While the results were generally in line with predictions, Democrats still outperformed expectations despite the low approval ratings of incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden and polls indicating his middling prospects in the 2024 presidential election.[4]
Both Democratic and Republican operatives attributed the Democrats' overperformance streak to general support of broad abortion rights in the wake of the Supreme Court's Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision. This marked a continuing trend of bipartisan voter support for ballot initiative on abortion rights since the June 2022 decision.[5][6] Many conservative political analysts and commentators called a continued Republican alliance with the anti-abortion movement "untenable" and an "electoral disaster", and urged the party to favor abortion rights.[7] Young voters in particular gave overwhelming support for abortion rights. Among voters between 18 and 29 years old in increasingly Republican Ohio, an estimated 77% voted for Ohio Issue 1, including a majority of Republicans.[8] Exit polling indicated Ohioans believed abortion should be "mostly legal" by a margin of 61–36%.[9]
^ abBasu, Zachary (September 21, 2023). "Democrats are on a special election winning streak". Axios. Retrieved October 14, 2023.
^Rakich, Nathaniel (September 20, 2023). "Democrats have been winning big in special elections". ABC News. Retrieved November 11, 2023.
^Paz, Christian (2023-11-11). "The other warning Republicans should heed from this year's elections". Vox. Retrieved 2023-11-16.
^Axelrod, Tal (August 5, 2023). "Democrats are overperforming in 2023's special elections. Is it a clue for Biden vs. Trump?". ABC News. Retrieved November 8, 2023.
^Knowles, Hannah (November 7, 2023). "Abortion rights advocates win major victories in Ohio, Kentucky". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 8, 2023.
^Owens, Caitlin; Kight, Stef W. (November 7, 2023). "Abortion rights win big in 2023 off-year elections". Axios.
^Luciano, Michael (2023-11-08). "Hannity Resigns Himself to Abortion Rights Victory in Ohio: 'If We're Really Gonna Be Honest About This...'". Mediaite. Retrieved 2023-11-08.
^"Exit polls for Ohio ballot measure election results 2023". CNN. November 7, 2023. Retrieved November 8, 2023.
^Filer, Christine; Langer, Gary; De Jong, Allison (November 7, 2023). "Ohio voters broadly support abortion access, early exit poll of ballot measure shows". ABC News. Retrieved November 11, 2023.
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